I Make Things Simple

2 03 2015

Chicago

Too long, don’t bother reading.

This just boils down to these simple questions:

Will Karen Lewis and the CTU be able sweet talk black and non-Mexican Hispanic voters into voting for a Mexican to oust Rahm?  And will that be enough to overcome the big majority of the white vote that Rahm will get?  What will the turnout be on both sides of the ledger?  Do black voters still care that Rahm was once Obama’s chief of staff?  Are doctrinaire white liberals a wild card here?

 





Petering Out

25 02 2015

Chicago

The ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1 had yet another chance to materialize, this time yesterday in Chicago.

Thud.

Turnout in the Hispanic-heavy wards was very low, even though the low turnout did vote more than 70% for Chuy Garcia.  However, most votes for Garcia came from the people who were voting against Rahm and were voting for the most legitimate not-Rahm on the ballot.  Garcia did well enough in the black wards on the south and west side.

No, the main reason why Rahm couldn’t get to 50% was that the black voters who were there for him four years ago either voted for Garcia or a black millionaire named Wilson.





April 7: Jesus vs the Jew

24 02 2015

Chicago

Two days after Easter, no less.

It’s just too bad the tabloidy Sun-Times doesn’t have the balls to run “JESUS VS THE JEW” as their front page headline tomorrow morning.





Jesus Rises

19 02 2015

Chicago

WaPo profiles the man who may keep Rahm under 50% on Tuesday and therefore be the other candidate in a runoff with him.  That being Jesus Garcia, a Mexican-American who currently sits on the Crook County council:

But Garcia is pushing an even higher minimum wage. Backed by the Chicago Teachers Union, which has clashed sharply with Emanuel, most notably in a 2012 strike, he has blasted the mayor’s controversial decision to shutter more than 50 elementary schools to close a budget deficit. And he wants to replace the city’s appointed school board with an elected one.

That’s the key takeaway.  The only real political force in Chicago that’s all in against Rahm is the CTU, who have a personal axe to grind against him.  Then again, were they expecting Rahm to wave a magic wand and defeat fiscal reality to keep a bunch of schools with declining attendance open just so CTU members could continue having jobs?  Garcia is nothing more than the CTU’s weaponized sock puppet to get revenge against Rahm.

Garcia also is competing hard for black voters. He has touted his close ties to the late Harold Washington, the city’s first black mayor. Garcia was Washington’s deputy water commissioner and remained a close ally as an alderman.

He also has raised concerns about crime under Emanuel’s watch, decrying “10,000 shootings in the last four years” in a TV ad.

Still, according to a Chicago Tribune poll released this week, Garcia is carrying only 13 percent of the black vote.

A Mexican-American is only getting 13% of the black vote?  That should set off a whole lot of alarms in the Coalition of the Ascendant.

Ensuring strong turnout among Hispanic voters is a key component of Garcia’s strategy. He spent Tuesday afternoon canvassing taquerias in Little Village, the Mexican American enclave where he grew up, making his pitch in Spanish and English, posing for selfies with supporters, and making small talk with the lunchtime crowd.

(snip)

So Garcia has been relying on his mustache, which has taken on a life of its own, and his nickname, Chuy, a Mexican moniker for Jesus, to sharpen his public profile without dishing out the money normally required to boost name recognition.

And that’s dangerous for two reasons:  One, the ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1 is a paper tiger.  The only reason Luis Gutiérrez has a job is that his district is bizarrely gerrymandered so that the only kind of voters in it are Hispanic.  And that alludes to the other thing:  Most Chicago Hispanics, Gutiérrez included, are Puerto Rican, with a smattering of Dominicans.  How motivated are PRs and DRs going to be to go out and vote for someone who keeps running around yammering about Mexico Mexico Mexico?

Speaking about Emanuel’s opponents, Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.), an Emanuel convert who didn’t back him in 2011, said, “They are very articulate about what they dislike about Rahm. But they are very scarce on plans for the future of the city of Chicago and most important, how you’re going to pay for it.”

Like I said…

Even if there is a runoff, I don’t think Rahm will have much of a problem in it.  And the only reason there would be a runoff is if black voters have both a low turnout and don’t give Rahm the absolute majority of their vote like they did in 2011.

And whenever Rahm scores a big win over Garcia, either on Tuesday or in the later runoff, here will be the perfect headline for whichever Chicago paper has the balls:

JEW CLOBBERS JESUS





To No Avail

10 02 2015

Chicago

Yeah they’ll investigate.

Either the investigation will be buried, or magically, they won’t be able to find any evidence of wrongdoing.

Too black to fail.

The holy name of Jackie Robinson will not be blasphemed.

Remember, this is a country whose overall national electorate just couldn’t tell Barack Obama “No” in two tries.

UPDATE 2/11

I’ll be damned.  They were punished after all.

But not without some black bitching.





What We Mean By “Black Undertow”

8 02 2015

Chicago

H/T True News USA.

The Joe Mokwa Doctrine has become the Garry McCarthy Doctrine.

CST:

If you and another person get arrested together in Chicago, you’re both part of a loose network of people with a high risk of getting shot in the future, Yale University researchers say in a newly published study.

Only 6 percent of the people in Chicago between 2006 and 2012 were listed on arrest reports as co-offenders in crimes, the study says. But those people became the victims of 70 percent of the nonfatal shootings in the city over the same period.

The study, called “Tragic, but not random: The social contagion of nonfatal gunshot injuries,” was published in the January 2015 issue of Social Science & Medicine. It shows the risk of becoming a gunshot victim in Chicago is “more concentrated than previously thought,” according to Andrew Papachristos, one of the authors.

However, the point remains: If you think that 70% of non-fatal shootings in Chicago are no big deal because they are entirely contained within the wrong crowd, this means that 30% of the shootings are “real” shootings. I bet if you multiplied Chicago’s non-fatal shooting rate by 0.3, that still leaves you with a rate way higher than what you would find in Suburban Cook or the Collar Counties.

More:

And as was previously known, race was a key risk factor in getting shot, the study noted. For every 100,000 people, an average of one white person, 28 Hispanics and 113 blacks became victims of nonfatal shootings every year in Chicago over the six-year study period.

But Papachristos and his team sought to go beyond a racial explanation for nonfatal shootings. They were trying to explain why a specific young African-American male in a high-crime neighborhood becomes a shooting victim, while another young black man in the same neighborhood doesn’t, the study said.

Such social network analysis allows the manpower-strapped Chicago Police Department to “discern who’s at risk rather than casting the net really wide,” he said.

The latest Yale University study was built on Papachristos’ previous social-network research into murders on the West Side. He had studied killings between 2005 and 2010 in West Garfield Park and North Lawndale. About 70 percent of the killings occurred in what Papachristos found was a social network of only about 1,600 people — out of a population of about 80,000 in those neighborhoods. Inside that social network, the risk of being killed was 30 out of 1,000. For the others in those neighborhoods, the risk of getting murdered was less than one in 1,000.

Papachristos said his team has been doing similar social network research in Boston; Cincinnati; Newark; New Haven, Conn.; East Palo Alto, Calif.; Stockton, Calif.; and other cities.

“You are also seeing a clustering of victims in small networks there,” he said. “We’re seeing a pattern.”

“Small networks,” aka the black undertow.

The solution is the hoosegow and Depo-Provera.





Some Kind of Town, Palatine Is

5 02 2015

Palatine, Illinois

Measles hits the KinderCare in Palatine. 

First off, I want to snicker, because I call the Lieutenant Governor of Missouri Peter Kindercare.

Anyway, I looked up Palatine in general, and the KinderCare’s address, on NYT Census Explorer.  And it has a significant percentage of Hispanics in some census tracts but it’s not heavily Hispanic.  I then checked Palatine’s page on the online encyclopedia of questionable credibility, and it indicated that Palatine’s average household income is around $63k, okay but not rich, so it’s probably not where the high fallutin’ anti-vaccine white gentry left wing in Chicago lives.

It’s got to be something.








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