Proposition Tomorrow

3 04 2017

St. Louis City

If you happen to live in the city, and fewer and fewer people who care about my opinions do, here are my recommendations for tomorrow:

I don’t care either way about Prop A or Prop B.

Vote no on Prop C, NS, 1 and 2.

I get the feeling they will all pass.

 





The Greatest Political Jitz of All Time

28 03 2017

Downtown

Another one of the propositions on the city ballot a week from today is Prop A, which would consolidate Recorder of Deeds with Assessor, and use the savings to buy cop body cams and the data maintenance therefrom.

The pro-A mailers are heavily touting the cop angle.  Not only that, they’re selling cop body cams as devices that will mean “higher conviction rates,” “better trained cops,” and “fewer complaints against cops.”

This is strange, isn’t it?  For months and months after the hoopla on the Fergaza Strip, the entire public and private alphabet gang told us that cops need to wear cams to catch them in the act red-handed brutalizing black babies’ bodies.  I predicted at the time that more and more cops would be made to wear cams, but over time, as these cams showed us more WSHH-worthy video showing up the black undertow, and exposed a majority of cop versus black civilian controversies generally in favor of the former, that the alphabet gang of the left would do a very quick 180, and start demanding the cops get rid of their body cams.  To a very small extent, that has already started.

I now think the cops knew that all along, and on the sly and with a dash of pretense of opposition went along with the “zomg cams for cops lol” BLM/NAACP/Bell Curve City/Dinduistan hysteria because they knew the matter would politically jitz in favor of the cops and away from BLM/NAACP/Bell Curve City/Dinduistan.





August November Romance

27 03 2017

Downtown

I’m looking at what’s on the ballot a week from tomorrow, and I notice that in the city, there will be a proposed charter amendment that will move the city’s election cycle from the March primary April general cycle that state law proscribes for municipalities to an August primary November system that state law requires for state and Federal offices.  The city can do that in spite of state law because of its home rule powers.

I don’t know if it would make a difference either way.  I’m just trying to figure out who is behind it through the inference of who would benefit from it.  I know that a certain Mr. Rex S. supports B, but I also know for sure that he had no substantial hand in getting B on the ballot, and isn’t spending much on the pro campaign.  However, just his support is causing a lot of people to be apprehensive about it, and some are even flat out declaring their opposition for no other reason.

As for my more rational and far less knee-jerk parsing, I come up with two theories:

(1) Remember, only one party in the city matters, that being Democrat.  This means that, in the system we have now, all relevant candidate-based electoral politics happen in March of odd-numbered years, with April being pro forma.  If B passes, it means that they would all happen in August of even-numbered years, with November being pro forma.  One thing we know for sure about St. Louis — It’s always warmer in early August than it is in early March, and there is zero chance of debilitating snow in early August, while there is in early March.  It’s possible that moving the meat of city politics from March to August is meant to try to boost black turnout.  If NAACP type groups or black/-ish groups are behind Prop B, then we’ll know the time of day.

(2) If it’s not race, then another thing that auspiciously jumps out at me is that, because the change would happen starting in 2020, meaning the March/April 2019 elections normally held then would not be held until August/November 2020, and then the March/April 2021 elections that would be held then would not be held until August/November 2022, it means that the next mayoral election in the city, scheduled for March/April 2021 but for Prop B, would happen in August/November 2022 if B passes, and then every August/November of even-numbered Presidential midterm years going forward.  Think of another prominent St. Louis-area local government executive office voted on in August/November of Presidential midterm years — That’s right — St. Louis County Executive.  Could this be some sort of slick on-the-low propaganda mechanism to grease the skids psychologically for city-county merger?

As an aside, even if Prop B does not pass, what will happen is that the city board of aldermen will halve in size from 28 to 14 starting at the first normal election cycle after the release of the 2020 Census data (that happens some time in the late spring of 2021) and the requisite drawing of the city map into 14 wards of roughly equal population.  I think what will happen as far as that goes is that all 14 wards will go on the first election, then they’ll alternate between the even numbered and odd numbered wards every four years.  If Prop B does not pass, then it will go like this:  All 14 wards in March/April 2023, then the seven odd-numbered wards in March/April 2025, then the even-numbered wards in March/April 2027, etc.  If Prop B does pass, then the all-wards cycle will happen in August/November 2022, then the seven even-numbered wards in August/November 2024, then the seven odd-numbered wards in August/November 2026, etc.  I think it will continue to be the case that once the 14 ward system is settled in, odd numbered wards go on the mayoral cycle and the even numbered wards go on the mayoral midterm cycle, which would be the aldermanic president cycle, that city wide office would go on August/November of Presidential cycles if Prop B passes.





GOTBV

21 03 2017

Jeff Vanderlou

Read it for yourself.

Go ahead, take it at face value.  Or maybe, just maybe, you’ll come back here for the proper translation into English.

Good, you’re still here.  I knew you’d choose wisely.

Remember, among competing hypotheses, the one with the most cynicism should be selected.

Here’s how you translate this PR gobbledygook into English, and it is true PR gobbledygook, because it contains at least one use of words that are close enough to “realize their full potential.”

Soccer Club St. Louis is bribing important black officials and luminaries to turn out the black vote in the city in favor of Proposition 2 two weeks from today.

That’s all there is to it.  Nothin’ but soccer net.

That understood, I find the second to last bullet point to be ironic.  Not only on its face, but right above Prop 2 on the city ballot two weeks today will be Prop 1, a sales tax increase that will fund, among other things, more cops, and also, the North-South MissingLink seed money.





Foregone But Narrow

7 03 2017

Downtown

It took until all 222 precincts were counted, but as I expected, Lyda Krewson won.

But as I was not expecting, she won narrowly (> 2%, > 1k), and as it turned out, Tishaura Jones, Virvus Jones’s daughter, broke away from the pack of credible black candidates to give Krewson a run for her money.

I’m on the road, so I’ve been observing the results and video online, and I think I now know what I was missing that Jones tapped into almost to pull this thing off.  She held her watch party somewhere on the south side, and considering her father, that’s a surprise in and of itself, and a majority of the people there were gay white men and white people wearing some sort of leftist cause t-shirt or hat.

So, she must have tapped into the city’s doctrinaire progressive and LGBTQ-BLT-BBQ-LOL body politics.  Mash that together with the requisite percentage of the black vote she was inevitable to get, and it’s easy to see how she missed it by that much.  As far as that goes, St. Louis’s urban electoral politics have now become the same as in other major cities, that the schism is up-versus-down within the left and the blue team, well-to-do neoliberals upstairs versus ideologically charged liberal activists and thinkers and low SES voters downstairs.  The reason I was thinking, mistakenly as it turned out, that Krewson would win this thing going away and then some is because my brain is stuck on the obsolete ’80s and early ’90s paradigm of white tribe versus black tribe when it comes to city politics and voting habits.

I’ll know more when BOEC lets go of ward-by-ward numbers in a few weeks.  But from what I’m thinking, I bet that Lyda Krewson didn’t exactly go gangbusters in her own ward.  She did enough to win, but I’m willing to bet that if she did get a majority in the 28th, it wasn’t a yuge one.

For what I’m thinking, Miss Jones is Mayor-Elect tonight if she convinces either Antonio French or Lewis Reed to drop out or not to run to begin with.





Tonight’s News, This Morning

7 03 2017

Downtown

Some time after 7 PM:

“The Post-Dispatch has now projected that Lyda Krewson has won the Democrat primary for mayor, and is therefore most likely the next mayor of St. Louis.”





Civilization Desert

2 03 2017

North City

The candidates for mayor gush over north city.

But this is where you could stop reading:

A paper co-written by University of Missouri-St. Louis Professor Todd Swanstrom found that “not a single majority black neighborhood in 1970 that was surrounded by other black neighborhoods rebounded in the subsequent decades.”

It’s all noise because Trump put a halt to AFFH.  So, unless black women of reproductive ages voluntarily leave, it’s same-as-it-ever-was.