Must Stop Meeting Like This

8 06 2017

London

I didn’t have to look at David Dimbleby once between May 2010 and May 2015.  Now, I’ll be looking at him for the second time in the time period I was hoping I didn’t have to see him at all, and overall for the third time in three current years.  He anchored Brexit vote coverage for the BBC last year at about this time, and because of the April May June stunt, he’ll be anchoring the coverage for the snap general election tonight on the BBC.  He’s already 78, so one can only hope he’ll retire before the May 2020 elections.

I’m really interested to see how UKIP will fare today.  The successful Brexit vote last year, and Theresa May actually following through, would point to the rug being pulled out from under it, and most UKIP voters slithering to the Tories.  But, with the Religion of Peace being so peaceful in the last few weeks, and May’s idiocy in response, (“it’s the internet’s fault”), that could be a vector that works in the opposite direction, that moves voters from Tories to UKIP while at the same time minimizing UKIP to Tory movement over Brexit.

I’ll update this post through the late afternoon and evening, and consider this the British election open thread.

4:06 PM

Polling and exit polling are all over the place, ranging from Tory+50 to Tory-15, if the Tories come under 326 seats, then it’s a hung parliament.  Right now they have 330.

4:51 PM

If this stunt winds up blowing up in Theresa May’s face, then in retrospect, then everyone should have been able to see it coming.  She was banking on riding on the backs of the politics of the Brexit vote, when there was a different political dynamic at work there than there are in conventional parliamentary electoral politics.  May guessed that since Brexit won in a lot of marginal to fairly solid Labour constituencies in England, that meant the Tories could pick them off in a snap election with Brexit fresh on voters’ minds.  Plain words, May doesn’t seem to be getting the post-Brexit vote credit for Brexit.  Which makes sense, because from what I remember, she was a mild opponent of Brexit.

5:04 PM

Newcastle Central was the first constituency to declare, when one on Sunderland is usually the first.  Labour had a substantial gain, the Tories a noticeable gain, while UKIP had a substantial loss.  The seat is a safe Labour seat.

5:14 PM

The one in Sunderland that usually declares first has just declared.  UKIP collapsed, but this time, the Tories gained more than Labour, even though the seat is safe Labour.  I think the sum total of the two constituencies that have declared so far is going to be the story of the night insofar as UKIP is concerned — Brexit made UKIP redundant, and the Tories and Labour will about evenly harvest the dividends from the outpouring away from UKIP.  Just as UKIP itself two years ago drew blood about evenly from the Tories and Labour, and a bit from the LDs.

6:34 PM

Now I’m starting to hear the noise of “Brexit may have to be delayed if May or whoever replaces her as PM if she steps down doesn’t have an absolute Tory majority behind her, because we don’t need a weak government slash hung parliament negotiating for Britain.”  How convenient.  It’s like I said about Brexit after the Brexit vote:  In spite of the vote, IBIWISI, and that the political establishment would find 50 million different excuses to delay or drag their feet, hoping that it will drift off people’s minds, as people have a short attention span anyway, and nobody will suffer any consequences, and nobody will care, when it dawns on everyone that Brexit hasn’t formally happened and won’t.

8:07 PM

About an hour ago, I started to think that Theresa May did this all deliberately to sabotage Brexit.  And, Nigel Farage is dog whistling that same accusation.

8:27 PM

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is also having a bad night.  Tonight might well be the Waterloo for both the SNP and UKIP.  Maybe I’m being a Polyanna, but this very well could open up a lane for a renewal of the BNP.

8:48 PM

Remember Nick Clegg?  In 2010, his visage was Obamaized in the famous “HOPE” poster.  Tonight, he lost his constituency to Labour.

9:32 PM

UKIP has lost its only seat to the Tories.  Which, considering how the night was going before now, was predictable.

10:30 PM

The way a lot of people are talking, there was a lot of serious political talk about both a second Scottish independence referendum and a second Brexit referendum.

10:39 PM

I wrote off Jeremy Corbyn as a nut, and he might still be.  But it turns out he’s a more wily and clever campaigner and flesh-pounder than anyone gave him credit for being.

11:00 PM

Tories have 288 seats, 38 short of a majority, 53 left to declare.  Nigel Farage is now making noises about getting back into politics somehow.

I must surrender to the sandman now, so we’ll see what things look like in the morning.

Friday 7:35 AM

Tories finish with 319, a loss of 11.  The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, always allied with the Tories, will add its numbers to give the Tories a functioning majority, and it’s said that this won’t knock Brexit off its perch.

No IA&Bs about it, yesterday was a disaster for Theresa May.  When she called this snap election, she was fully electing the Tories to get at least 400 seats.

8:00 AM

Yeah, we know, you’re gloating.  And also, homosexuality is implicit whiteness.

Really though, British nationalism wasn’t a jumping scene even before Brexit.

I will have to confess that yesterday, as a surprise extra date on the 2016-2017 Kek World Tour, was never going to be a good one for the Alt-Right, no matter which way you slice it.

8:39 AM

Of course I think UKIP is better off with Nigel Farage running it.  But I don’t think that would have made yesterday turn out any differently for UKIP.  What killed UKIP yesterday was that Brexit made UKIP obsolete.

Sunday 7 PM

Well well well.  Looks like somebody’s cynicism has just been vindicated.

Monday 10 AM

Funny how that works.





All Important Third Barrier

7 05 2017

Paris

Of course I would have wanted to see MLP win outright.  But that was a long shot.

I was actually thinking she’d break 40%.  No on that count, either.

But here’s the good news:

If she winds up getting 35%, and I’ll come back later and insert the actual number, she will have almost doubled the previous record for the percentage of the national vote cast for a FN candidate.  She herself holds that record, when she got 17.9% five years ago in the first round, though that was only good for third place, and she obviously didn’t make the runoff.  That figure in turn slightly beats her father’s share of the national vote in the runoff when he made it ten years prior.

Here’s the more important thing.

She passed one-third.

There’s an old saying that if a cause which previously had less support makes it above one-third public support, it’s inevitable, while a cause which previously had high public support falls below one-third, it’s never coming back and will soon die.





Up a Flooded Crick Without a Paddle

5 05 2017

Paris

French election runoff funnies.

* “How can such idyllic villages support the far right?”

Duh, because they want to stay idyllic.

* If MLP can pull it off on Sunday, it’s going to put the IOC in a bind.  You see, the only two finalist cities for the Summer 2024 games are Los Angeles and Paris.  So they have to pick between Trump, who they hate, or MLP, who they hate.

If it gets to that point, then bribery will be the deciding factor.





Proposition Tomorrow

3 04 2017

St. Louis City

If you happen to live in the city, and fewer and fewer people who care about my opinions do, here are my recommendations for tomorrow:

I don’t care either way about Prop A or Prop B.

Vote no on Prop C, NS, 1 and 2.

I get the feeling they will all pass.

 





The Greatest Political Jitz of All Time

28 03 2017

Downtown

Another one of the propositions on the city ballot a week from today is Prop A, which would consolidate Recorder of Deeds with Assessor, and use the savings to buy cop body cams and the data maintenance therefrom.

The pro-A mailers are heavily touting the cop angle.  Not only that, they’re selling cop body cams as devices that will mean “higher conviction rates,” “better trained cops,” and “fewer complaints against cops.”

This is strange, isn’t it?  For months and months after the hoopla on the Fergaza Strip, the entire public and private alphabet gang told us that cops need to wear cams to catch them in the act red-handed brutalizing black babies’ bodies.  I predicted at the time that more and more cops would be made to wear cams, but over time, as these cams showed us more WSHH-worthy video showing up the black undertow, and exposed a majority of cop versus black civilian controversies generally in favor of the former, that the alphabet gang of the left would do a very quick 180, and start demanding the cops get rid of their body cams.  To a very small extent, that has already started.

I now think the cops knew that all along, and on the sly and with a dash of pretense of opposition went along with the “zomg cams for cops lol” BLM/NAACP/Bell Curve City/Dinduistan hysteria because they knew the matter would politically jitz in favor of the cops and away from BLM/NAACP/Bell Curve City/Dinduistan.





August November Romance

27 03 2017

Downtown

I’m looking at what’s on the ballot a week from tomorrow, and I notice that in the city, there will be a proposed charter amendment that will move the city’s election cycle from the March primary April general cycle that state law proscribes for municipalities to an August primary November system that state law requires for state and Federal offices.  The city can do that in spite of state law because of its home rule powers.

I don’t know if it would make a difference either way.  I’m just trying to figure out who is behind it through the inference of who would benefit from it.  I know that a certain Mr. Rex S. supports B, but I also know for sure that he had no substantial hand in getting B on the ballot, and isn’t spending much on the pro campaign.  However, just his support is causing a lot of people to be apprehensive about it, and some are even flat out declaring their opposition for no other reason.

As for my more rational and far less knee-jerk parsing, I come up with two theories:

(1) Remember, only one party in the city matters, that being Democrat.  This means that, in the system we have now, all relevant candidate-based electoral politics happen in March of odd-numbered years, with April being pro forma.  If B passes, it means that they would all happen in August of even-numbered years, with November being pro forma.  One thing we know for sure about St. Louis — It’s always warmer in early August than it is in early March, and there is zero chance of debilitating snow in early August, while there is in early March.  It’s possible that moving the meat of city politics from March to August is meant to try to boost black turnout.  If NAACP type groups or black/-ish groups are behind Prop B, then we’ll know the time of day.

(2) If it’s not race, then another thing that auspiciously jumps out at me is that, because the change would happen starting in 2020, meaning the March/April 2019 elections normally held then would not be held until August/November 2020, and then the March/April 2021 elections that would be held then would not be held until August/November 2022, it means that the next mayoral election in the city, scheduled for March/April 2021 but for Prop B, would happen in August/November 2022 if B passes, and then every August/November of even-numbered Presidential midterm years going forward.  Think of another prominent St. Louis-area local government executive office voted on in August/November of Presidential midterm years — That’s right — St. Louis County Executive.  Could this be some sort of slick on-the-low propaganda mechanism to grease the skids psychologically for city-county merger?

As an aside, even if Prop B does not pass, what will happen is that the city board of aldermen will halve in size from 28 to 14 starting at the first normal election cycle after the release of the 2020 Census data (that happens some time in the late spring of 2021) and the requisite drawing of the city map into 14 wards of roughly equal population.  I think what will happen as far as that goes is that all 14 wards will go on the first election, then they’ll alternate between the even numbered and odd numbered wards every four years.  If Prop B does not pass, then it will go like this:  All 14 wards in March/April 2023, then the seven odd-numbered wards in March/April 2025, then the even-numbered wards in March/April 2027, etc.  If Prop B does pass, then the all-wards cycle will happen in August/November 2022, then the seven even-numbered wards in August/November 2024, then the seven odd-numbered wards in August/November 2026, etc.  I think it will continue to be the case that once the 14 ward system is settled in, odd numbered wards go on the mayoral cycle and the even numbered wards go on the mayoral midterm cycle, which would be the aldermanic president cycle, that city wide office would go on August/November of Presidential cycles if Prop B passes.





GOTBV

21 03 2017

Jeff Vanderlou

Read it for yourself.

Go ahead, take it at face value.  Or maybe, just maybe, you’ll come back here for the proper translation into English.

Good, you’re still here.  I knew you’d choose wisely.

Remember, among competing hypotheses, the one with the most cynicism should be selected.

Here’s how you translate this PR gobbledygook into English, and it is true PR gobbledygook, because it contains at least one use of words that are close enough to “realize their full potential.”

Soccer Club St. Louis is bribing important black officials and luminaries to turn out the black vote in the city in favor of Proposition 2 two weeks from today.

That’s all there is to it.  Nothin’ but soccer net.

That understood, I find the second to last bullet point to be ironic.  Not only on its face, but right above Prop 2 on the city ballot two weeks today will be Prop 1, a sales tax increase that will fund, among other things, more cops, and also, the North-South MissingLink seed money.