Brexit Open Thread

23 06 2016

London

I predict that:

(1) Leave wins narrowly,

(1a) Because the polls are showing what I think will be the ultimate narrow margin of victory, but the polls are missing some support for Leave because of the Bradley Effect and some support for Remain because of voter fraud and non-citizen voting, the two will cancel each other out

(2) David Cameron will refuse to implement the formal procedures to exit the EU, based on some pretense, either:

(2a) Openly citing the “whiteness” as the Leave electorate and the “rainbow/diverse” nature of the Remain electorate as an excuse, or citing the narrow margin of the Leave win, or citing the Jo Cox murder, or some combination thereof

or

(2b) He will, for public consumption, and while engaging in superficial but non-substantive measures, pretend to be exiting the EU, in private and behind the curtains, not doing so in substance.

All polls close at 4 PM Central Time, 10 PM local British summer time, and I expect as usual, the same few constituencies that historically hurry up and count after closing, like Sunderland and a few others, will follow suit here, even though the vote is country-wide, and not a per-constituency affair like parliamentary elections.  However, it won’t be until late in the evening our time that constituencies start reporting en masse.





Behavior Modification

20 06 2016

London

soros-brexit

Translation:  Soros is going to crash the economy like a spoiled brat if Brexit happens.

I think that we’re being set up for David Cameron not to implement Brexit even if it wins at the ballot box, using the excuses of a supposed economic crash, Leave using “racist” campaign tactics, and the non-diversity of Leave’s electorate as opposed to the rainbows in Remain.

 





German Finance Minister Doesn’t Want Britain to Leave Greater Germany

10 06 2016

Berlin

Yes, he’s the same one who said that Germany needed to import Muslims in order to solve its German problem.

There’s really nothing new under the sun; it looks like World Wars I and II are still actually going on, albeit in a far less bloody form and utilizing way different politics.  But it’s the same ole England versus Germany.  Instead of trading bullets, they’re in a fierce non-white-importing competition with each other.





English Capital

5 05 2016

London

The top two contenders are Jewish and Pakistani Muslim.

I wonder if the actual English are interested in being the mayor of the English capital anymore.  Rather, I wonder if there are any actual English living in the English capital anymore.





Wiggers, Can’t Live With ‘Em

9 02 2016

Manchester, England

Cops called to a riot, discover that it was just a rap video recording taking place.

What’s the difference?





Moneymentum

13 01 2016

England

One of the things that made me doubt Trump’s chances at first was that the British books weren’t feeling him.

They’re finally getting around to feeling him.

George Wallace once said that he’d rather hear someone tell him that he thinks that he’s going to win the election rather than hear him say that he’s going to vote for him.  It has to do with the concepts of psychological momentum, the bandwagon.  That the percent of people who think that Trump will win the nomination is about twice that of the percent of people that will vote for him in Republican Ps&Cs suits me just fine.  The marginal universe of people who think Trump will win but aren’t voting for him will probably evenly split between staying home and actually voting for their preferred candidate; remember, just as blacks who don’t vote at all in Hillary versus Trump are in essence casting a half a vote for Trump, non-Trump Republicans in this marginal universe who don’t vote are doing the same in R Ps&Cs.

Likewise, the gambling universe, and people that gamble on elections in British books aren’t dummies, so they’re pretty smart money, are starting to come around.





Officially a Real Threat

4 01 2016

Dunkirk, France

While we weren’t looking, someone tried to take out Nigel Farage.  This happened back in October, yet, we’re only hearing about it now.

This should take most of the wind out of the “Farage/UKIP is a secret foil for the system” p-nut gallery.








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