Mountain from a Hundred Miles

23 04 2017

Paris

“Shocking,” that MLP made the runoff.

Yes, it’s shocking, unless you’ve been paying attention to the race and the polling data for the last handful of months.

That so much of the media are parroting this “shocking” line this afternoon makes me think about what I wrote here yesterday.  In light of both things, I am now going with a derivative of my second theory.  What I mean is that they kept saying MLP will make the runoff for months, thinking she wouldn’t, and perhaps having scientific polling to back it up.  They did that so that when she didn’t make the runoff, they’d have grounds to gloat and beat their chest about people souring on the FN and popnat parties.

But MLP did make the runoff, therefore, they’re shocked.





Smile Into a Frown

22 04 2017

Paris

What’s with all the establishment hysteria over MLP’s chances all of a sudden?

I think one of two things are at work:

Either:

(1)  They actually think she can win the whole bag of marbles, and are starting to panic,

Or:

(2) They know their conventional wisdom is right, that she’ll make the runoff but only get 35-40% in the runoff, is correct, and are deliberately overselling her in order to create grounds and a pretext for gloating when that happens.





Why I’m #NRx

17 04 2017

Paris

“Computer blunder.”

An honest mistake, I’m sure.





Ville D’Inquiétude

6 03 2017

Paris

The conventional wisdom is that MLP wins the opening round but then loses in the runoff.

So why all this official unhinged paranoia and derangement I’m reading out of Paris?

I can assure you that I don’t worry about a ladybug defeating me.





Dediabolization

26 02 2017

Paris

Yes she could.

And the reason why she could is because her public relations campaign of dediabolization of the party is yielding fruit that will show up in the runoff round of the voting.

The consensus of political scientists is that in electoral systems like that in France, and also Louisiana, and recently, California, where it’s everyone in the pool for the initial round of voting, then the top two face each other the runoff, voters have an affirmative mindset in the opening round and a defensive mindset in the runoff.  Meaning that they vote for who they really want or who is most like them in the opening, then vote against who they fear more in the runoff.

That was the perhaps delusional hope behind California Proposition 14 in 2010.  The thought was that such a system would enforce the precepts of political moderation (which, practically applied, means centrist establishmentarian neoliberalism or neoconservatism), but it was fed into the modern day California electorate.  Everyone’s mileage always varies.

In previous election years, the problem for JMLP and then MLP, and the FN in general, is that there are always enough French voters who affirmatively want either person or the party to get them either first or second in the opening round, but the media-establishment-((())) jihad against them means that way many more voters fear J/MLP-FN than the “mainstream” left or right party, meaning we flame out in the runoff.  MLP’s PR effort has that in mind, to get people to fear the FN less to give it a puncher’s chance in the runoff, and at the same time, trying to get people to fear the “mainstream” parties more.

This was the permanent lead anchor around David Duke’s ankle.  (Remember, Louisiana.)  Enough affirmative support to make the runoff, but way more fear of him always to lose in the runoff.





Look Who Was Spying Then

16 02 2017

Paris

Which is why it takes a lot of nerve for any of us to complain about other countries’ supposed interference in our elections.

It wasn’t just the CIA, either.  The American embassy in Paris and a bunch of American-led democracy project style soft power organizations also interfered, mainly to cock block FN/MLP.

This is why Trump’s victory was so important, because the upcoming French elections will now be held with the colossus of American soft and implied hard power being wielded by someone who is at least somewhat sympathetic with FN/MLP, instead of hostile toward it.





Just Can’t Figure It Out

1 02 2017

Hénin-Beaumont, France

AFP:

But opposition members and NGOs in Henin-Beaumont say the party’s manicured image masks a more disturbing reality.

They point to a “Migrant-free Town” vote organised by Briois last year — without the town having been asked to take in any of migrants pouring into Europe — as proof of a hardline agenda.

In spite of that, the town seems to be a pleasant place to live.