All Important Third Barrier

7 05 2017

Paris

Of course I would have wanted to see MLP win outright.  But that was a long shot.

I was actually thinking she’d break 40%.  No on that count, either.

But here’s the good news:

If she winds up getting 35%, and I’ll come back later and insert the actual number, she will have almost doubled the previous record for the percentage of the national vote cast for a FN candidate.  She herself holds that record, when she got 17.9% five years ago in the first round, though that was only good for third place, and she obviously didn’t make the runoff.  That figure in turn slightly beats her father’s share of the national vote in the runoff when he made it ten years prior.

Here’s the more important thing.

She passed one-third.

There’s an old saying that if a cause which previously had less support makes it above one-third public support, it’s inevitable, while a cause which previously had high public support falls below one-third, it’s never coming back and will soon die.





Up a Flooded Crick Without a Paddle

5 05 2017

Paris

French election runoff funnies.

* “How can such idyllic villages support the far right?”

Duh, because they want to stay idyllic.

* If MLP can pull it off on Sunday, it’s going to put the IOC in a bind.  You see, the only two finalist cities for the Summer 2024 games are Los Angeles and Paris.  So they have to pick between Trump, who they hate, or MLP, who they hate.

If it gets to that point, then bribery will be the deciding factor.





Mountain from a Hundred Miles

23 04 2017

Paris

“Shocking,” that MLP made the runoff.

Yes, it’s shocking, unless you’ve been paying attention to the race and the polling data for the last handful of months.

That so much of the media are parroting this “shocking” line this afternoon makes me think about what I wrote here yesterday.  In light of both things, I am now going with a derivative of my second theory.  What I mean is that they kept saying MLP will make the runoff for months, thinking she wouldn’t, and perhaps having scientific polling to back it up.  They did that so that when she didn’t make the runoff, they’d have grounds to gloat and beat their chest about people souring on the FN and popnat parties.

But MLP did make the runoff, therefore, they’re shocked.





Smile Into a Frown

22 04 2017

Paris

What’s with all the establishment hysteria over MLP’s chances all of a sudden?

I think one of two things are at work:

Either:

(1)  They actually think she can win the whole bag of marbles, and are starting to panic,

Or:

(2) They know their conventional wisdom is right, that she’ll make the runoff but only get 35-40% in the runoff, is correct, and are deliberately overselling her in order to create grounds and a pretext for gloating when that happens.





Why I’m #NRx

17 04 2017

Paris

“Computer blunder.”

An honest mistake, I’m sure.





Ville D’Inquiétude

6 03 2017

Paris

The conventional wisdom is that MLP wins the opening round but then loses in the runoff.

So why all this official unhinged paranoia and derangement I’m reading out of Paris?

I can assure you that I don’t worry about a ladybug defeating me.





Dediabolization

26 02 2017

Paris

Yes she could.

And the reason why she could is because her public relations campaign of dediabolization of the party is yielding fruit that will show up in the runoff round of the voting.

The consensus of political scientists is that in electoral systems like that in France, and also Louisiana, and recently, California, where it’s everyone in the pool for the initial round of voting, then the top two face each other the runoff, voters have an affirmative mindset in the opening round and a defensive mindset in the runoff.  Meaning that they vote for who they really want or who is most like them in the opening, then vote against who they fear more in the runoff.

That was the perhaps delusional hope behind California Proposition 14 in 2010.  The thought was that such a system would enforce the precepts of political moderation (which, practically applied, means centrist establishmentarian neoliberalism or neoconservatism), but it was fed into the modern day California electorate.  Everyone’s mileage always varies.

In previous election years, the problem for JMLP and then MLP, and the FN in general, is that there are always enough French voters who affirmatively want either person or the party to get them either first or second in the opening round, but the media-establishment-((())) jihad against them means that way many more voters fear J/MLP-FN than the “mainstream” left or right party, meaning we flame out in the runoff.  MLP’s PR effort has that in mind, to get people to fear the FN less to give it a puncher’s chance in the runoff, and at the same time, trying to get people to fear the “mainstream” parties more.

This was the permanent lead anchor around David Duke’s ankle.  (Remember, Louisiana.)  Enough affirmative support to make the runoff, but way more fear of him always to lose in the runoff.