Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of not running for President. Despite Clinton’s “disastrous book tour,” and other missteps, Cook still believes chances are still great that Clinton will run.
And like I said earlier this month in this space, in spite of the conventional wisdom, the #HillarysLosers hashtag, the fact that a whole lot of candidates she endorsed lost, HRC actually comes out of this election season stronger at least in terms of winning the Democrat nomination, and I think that was her only real hurdle. Three major people who could have taken the nomination away from her, Mark Warner, Martin O’Malley and Andrew Cuomo, came out of election day with weaker hands. And HRC will beat either Bush or Romney in November, easily. Clinton, Bush, Romney, because change.
The author of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter for almost 30 years also disappointed a local audience when he did not give Jeb Bush much of a chance of gaining the Republican nomination.
“Disappointed” that Jeb Bush won’t win the Republican nomination? What kind of a crowd was this? Well, three paragraphs down, we find the answer: It was a private event, which means some high dollar donor confab.
“Bush has two issues working against him to win the Republican primary for the 2016 presidential election,” Cook said. “One is immigration reform, which he favors; and two, is his advocacy of education reform.”
Neither of those causes would sit well with Republican primary voters, Cook said.
Sure, because that’s why John McCain didn’t win the Republican nomination in 2008.
He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest. He wouldn’t predict beyond that.
If the pattern of post-WWII Republican Presidential politics hold, then 2016 will either be Jeb Bush (because of his name) or Mitt Romney (for his past campaigns).
As for Missouri, Cook echoed what many are predicting, which is that U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill will run for Missouri governor.
“Many?” This is the first I’m hearing of this. For all I know, Chris Koster is the 2016 Democrat nominee for Governor, pretty much a done deal, even counting his recent scandal. Don’t forget, CMcC ran for Governor in 2004 but lost. If she does run, it would be a free run for her, because her Senate term isn’t up until 2018. If she wins, she will be able to appoint her own Senate replacement.