Today’s the first day of the veto session.
The votes aren’t there on RTW. It’s the same case as it was last year and the year before: While the actual RTW bill during the actual legislative session got more than 2/3 of the vote in both chambers, enough of those who voted for it in regular order can’t muster up to courage to override Nixon’s veto.
To me, the really weird part about the RTW issue in Missouri and everywhere else is the huge differential between how little of a real effect it does have (or would have) on the ground when it is (or would be) enacted in states that were previously closed-shop states, and the effect that interested stakeholders think it would have, such that both sides of pumping rivers of money into this town to make sure it either does or does not happen. Obviously, those who would be affected by it the most don’t agree with my insouciance; that’s why they’re spending all this money. Nobody is going to spend the serious coin on lobbying and media buys that both sides are doing right now in Missouri if they didn’t think that there was a lot at stake. These people don’t waste money on chimeras, I can assure you of that.
Likewise, I would have this same attitude if a RTW state actually changed or was contemplating changing to closed-shop, I wouldn’t think it would make much of a difference, but both business groups and organized labor would be pouring big money to make sure it doesn’t/does happen, respectively.
I just happen to think that there are many more important factors in wage/salary equilibria in various places than the open shop versus closed shop paradigm.
One thing I will say with near certainty is that Chris Koster is a cinch for the next Governor if the Republican nominee either states openly or it is well known by enough people that s/he will sign RTW. While the money stream on both sides is about the same, it is a net liability for any Republican candidate for Governor to be for it in terms of electoral politics. Everyone knows the General Assembly will remain in Republican hands for quite some time to come, so everyone knows that they will send the Governor a RTW bill year in and year out. Therefore, the unions know that they’re going to need someone sitting in 100 Madison that will veto it every time s/he gets such a bill. The unions will mobilize their foot soldiers and move heaven and Earth to make sure of that. And that will cost the Republican nominee in 2016 some very crucial and marginally consequential white working-middle class support. Unless the Republican nominee openly promises to veto RTW bills and better yet demands that General Assembly Republicans give up pushing RTW bills.
Though I don’t know why I’m bothering doleing out that advice. First off, none of the announced or speculated Republican candidates for Governor will actually do that, and none of them strike me as having the capability to pivot. Second, not a one of them do anything for me and none of them really impress me in general.