Bell Curve City Chronicles

1 09 2015

St. Louis City

* The crime, the suspect.  Martie Aboussie once lived on that very block, who was the alderman for that ward for a long time.  In 1998 or so, he got then mayor Clarence Harmon (Harmon’s son is the only real competition that Mary Pat Carl has to replace Jennifer Joyce as Circuit Attorney) to appoint him to be the city’s public safety director, mainly because Aboussie didn’t want to live on that block anymore, he wanted to move to a better part of the city, and as his ward was configured at the time, he didn’t have much wiggle room to both do that and stay in his own ward.  This is why he needed a citywide job, to be able to move anywhere else in the city.

* Holly Hills?  Yes, expensive, but it’s also right next to increasingly problematic Carondelet.

* This is actually LaSalle, not Downtown.  But there has already been a lot of funny business very close to that corner both this year and recently.

* Only 4th place, so there won’t be much of a hurry to bash the survey’s methodology.  But it’s based on 2013 data, and by comparison to last year and so far this year, 2013’s days were Halcyon Days.  Around the the time the Cardinals win the World Series this year, CQ Press (formerly Morgan Quitno) will release its own rankings, though I don’t know which year’s crime data it will be based upon.  Just as the Cardinals beat Detroit to win the World Series in 2006, and then a few days later, we beat Detroit again in the Morgan Quitno ratings.

* Steve Patterson, of Urban Review STL, one of my very favorite blogs, (in spite of its political leanings), gets some love from the local media.





World War T

1 09 2015

Hillsboro

Front of the P-D print edition today.

The Gap and The Camp of the Saints make cameo appearances.

pdfront-sept-1-2015





Don’t Look Now, But Somebody’s Narrative Is Getting Borked

1 09 2015

My illegitimate father, writing in NR:

There’s no question that partisan divisions have shifted little in recent years. Consider the almost precisely identical popular vote percentages for Barack Obama in 2012 (51.01 percent) and those when you combine the 2000 vote for Al Gore and Ralph Nader (48.38 plus 2.74 for 51.12 percent). The Republican percentages in those elections were nearly identical, too: 47.15 percent for Mitt Romney and 47.87 percent for George W. Bush.

The circumstances were similar. Gore was an incumbent vice president in an administration with positive job approval; Obama was the incumbent president whose approval reached 50 percent on Election Day. Under different circumstances, the Republican percentage rose a few points higher in 2004 and the Democratic percentage a few points higher in 2008.

Moreover, the national pattern was matched in most states. In 28 states and the District of Columbia the Obama 2012 and Gore/Nader percentages were within 1 or 2 percentage points (rounded off) of each other.

The biggest shifts were not, by the way, in California, Texas, or Florida, despite large Hispanic immigrant influxes. They voted just 1 or 2 points differently in 2000 and 2012, and the same was true for the large states from New York and New Jersey westward to Illinois and Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa.

The biggest shift toward Republicans came in the Appalachian/Jacksonian belt — coal-rich West Virginia (12 points), Clinton’s home in Arkansas (10 points), and Gore’s in Tennessee (9 points), plus 5-point shifts in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. Also, Mitt Romney’s home states of Massachusetts and Utah shifted 6 points Republican.

Don’t look now, but ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1 just got pantsed.

Another recurring theme, that is, a recurring theme of Steve Sailer, found here, is that diversity makes elections both uninteresting and very tight marginal affairs with little room for change or error.

For those of you new here, Michael Barone is not actually my illegitimate father.  It’s just the snarky way I denote the fact that we’re both political statgeeks and that he and my mother were both born in the same year.  I really should add that to the FAQ section.





Erick Erickson Is Part of the Problem That Donald Trump Is Accidentally Solving

31 08 2015

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

Head on over to OD.  Now, beyotches.





Mirror Mirror on the Wall, Which is the Gappiest Of Them All?

31 08 2015

Jefferson City

Data on Missouri school attendance rates, because:

“These early attendance gaps can turn into achievement gaps, which contribute to our graduation gaps,” Chang said.

The Diogenean hunt for the master gap continues.  What causes the early attendance gaps?  Is there even a master gap?  Or are we doomed to an eternity of chasing our tails, being stuck on a Mobius Loop, stuck in a perpetual motion narrative machine of various gaps being both the causes and the effects of each other?

Don’t get stuck in the gap.





Hollywood Calling

31 08 2015

New York

keila-ravelo

This story has been out there for awhile, but it’s still worth remembering.

It might be interesting enough to turn into a movie.





Call Her Lila

31 08 2015

Hillsboro

I only had a link to it in yesterday’s wrap-up.

The P-D has a longer follow-up today.

Here “she” is.

lila








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