Patrick Murray, Director of the Monmouth University poll, said his surveys show Trump’s negatives declining from 55 percent in June to 41 percent in July.
They also say Trump has no platform, no identifiable base of support, that he lacks institutional support from within the party, and they believe he continues to benefit from outsized media coverage
Critics also say Trump’s past will eventually come back to haunt him. Indeed, he has a long record of donating to Democratic candidates, and has in the past expressed support for universal healthcare, abortion and taxing the wealthy.
Read the whole thing for context.
Netting this all out, Trump can’t win because he has too much name recognition and he’s pro-abortion while running for the Presidential nomination of a political party whose elites constantly say “drop the social issues.”
“Taxing the wealthy” is a reference to Trump’ proposal to do a marginal wealth tax on extremely large static fortunes of 14.25% per year. For a lot of reasons, that can’t be done, but I do think that it could be done and would be worth considering if the rate is low, say, 1% a year or under. And as far as “universal health care,” (“which ObamaCare is not” — Trump), I think it’s smart politics on Trump’s part, because not many people who want ObamaDontCare gone have been able to articulate well what it should be replaced with, and those that try only give us vagaries and platitudes. Plain words, Trump is not letting himself be a conduit for right-libertarian economic ideology, and this is why European soft nationalist parties are starting to make major inroads, and part of the reason why he’s at the top of the Republican heap at the moment. It also shows that he wants to win, or at least he thinks he can win; whether he can or not or whether he actually will is another question, but it also means we’re dealing with something that’s a lot more than pure entertainment.
As for the first part, I included it to show that high unfavorability numbers can be reversed, and in a hurry. Which means that the 57-38 lead that HRC has over Trump in a hypo matchup can also be wiped out in a hurry. Remember, Lee Atwater was able to wipe out a 27 point lead that Michael Dukakis had over George H.W. Bush coming out of the Democrat National Convention in July 1988, in only three months and change. Meanwhile, we’re a year and three months and change away from election day.
But, since Trump is Trump, he has the very easy ability to make things go in the wrong direction in a hurry.