2014 General Election in Review, Missouri and Illinois Edition

MISSOURI AUDITOR

Sometimes lightning strikes.  Unfortunately, it didn’t here.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 2

The one to give judges the option to allow prosecutors to introduce the rap sheets relating to sex crimes against minors convictions against defendants on trial for sex crimes against minors to keep the minors who are alleged sex crime victims from having to testify.

It won statewide with 72%, won every county.  But curiously, its weakest county was the City of St. Louis, with only 59% yes.

On a hunch, I called up the St. Louis City BOEC website and drilled down its ward results.  There are four wards in the city where Amendment 2 failed:  Ward 1, Ward 8, Ward 15 and Ward 21.  1 is north side, Bell Curve City, in fact some of the worst blacks, represented by bigmouth loudmouth Sharon Tyus.  21, ditto, its alderman is the great Antonio French, who became a national figure during the Ferguson hoopla.  (Note:  This is not an insinuation that I think that either Tyus and/or French voted no on A2.)  Ward 8, though represented by a white man, is the Shaw neighborhood, you know, as in St. Sandwich of Ham.  More retrograde blacks.  Ward 15?  Uh oh…not a black ward.  Tower Grove South…which means…LGBTQMIAPDLOLPLPLTH.  It is the city neighborhood which has been the gayest the longest.  Even as far back as 1980 or so, so I have heard from city cops, the SLPD was doing gay prostitution stings in and around Tower Grove Park and in the residential areas south of there.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 3

The teacher evaluation system amendment.

This had the most number of votes (either for or against) of any thing on the statewide ballot, either public offices, judges or propositions.

The biggest untold story of the night is now A3 got its ass kicked from one side of the state to the other.  From all the way up there to all the way down there, from all the way over there to all the way over there, and everywhere in between.  Urban, rural, exurban, suburban…everywhere a no no.  Furthermore, the percent no ranged between 64% and 81% consistently across the state map of counties, for a statewide total of 76% no.  If this thing won in any precinct, I’ll be surprised.

I am more than happy with this result.

This was a rare issue where the teachers’ unions and conservative Christian groups were in the same boat.  Also in the boat were anti-Commune Core activists, and even some pro-homeschooling groups came along for the ride.

What does this all mean?  Superman will have to wait another day.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 6

Early voting provision.  Lost with 70%.  Didn’t even carry St. Louis City.

Sometimes, people aren’t as dumb as I give them credit for being.

MISSOURI AMENDMENT 10

The legislative-budget-authority provision.  Won with 57% of the vote statewide, though it lost in Kansas City within Jackson County, Boone, Cole and St. Louis City.  Since this was a power play between the Republican state legislature and the Democrat Governor, this was basically an acid test for red team or blue team, more or less.

MISSOURI STATE SENATE

Jeannie Riddle (R) beat Ed Schieffer (D) by almost 2-1 district-wide for SEN-10.  The red wave nature of the day swamped Schieffer’s natural advantage in Lincoln and Warren Counties.  I endorsed Schieffer.

In SEN-22, northern Jefferson County, Paul Wieland (R) beat Jeff Roorda (D) 54-46.  As this was to replace term limited Democrat Ryan McKenna, this is a party flip.

In SEN-24, the early numbers from St. Louis County gave me a hunch that this was not going to be Jay Ashcroft’s night, and it was not.  Jill Schupp bested him 50-47.  The previous occupant of SEN-24 is a Republican, so this is rare R to D flip from the night.

Overall, Republicans gained a net of two Senate seats, meaning they’re at a 25-9 advantage in the next session.  They only needed to stay at 23 to keep the veto-proof margin.

MISSOURI STATE HOUSE

R+7, meaning that the next House will be 117 R to 46 D, meaning a 71% and veto-proof Republican House.

MISSOURI JUDGES

All judges up this year under the Plan Nine from Outer Space won retention, as usual, with yes percentages ranging from 57 to 78.  Including the two I voted no on.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE

Oh boy.

Early last week, I heard credible secret squirrel gossip that an internal poll that Rickroller Stream commissioned showed Steve Stenger leading Stream but within the margin of error.

I scoffed.

I shouldn’t have.

Seesaw all evening.  It took the last set of precincts to report, as in the team having the final possession of the ball is the one that wins.

Final results:  Stenger 138,922 votes for 47.71%, Stream 137,230 for 47.13%.  Less than 0.6% and fewer than 1,700 votes.

Bullet.  Dodged.

More than 5% in this race either voted for a minor party candidate or wrote someone in.  I bet that almost all of the 3,700 write-ins were from the hands up don’t shoot crowd.

As far as that goes:

ST. LOUIS COUNTY CIRCUIT ATTORNEY

Bob McCulloch was unopposed.  Obviously, you can deduce that the filing deadlines came and went well before August 9.

11,009 people, representing 4.7% of the vote, wrote in someone else’s name.  Again, the hands up don’t shoot people.

MISSOURI U.S. HOUSE DELEGATION

As expected, no party flips.  Remains 6 R and 2 D.

Remember, in a given state, each Congressional district (if a state has more than one) is supposed to be drawn such that each district has just about equal population.  Meaning that the state’s eight districts each have just about exactly one-eighth of the state’s population.  But note the total votes cast for Congressional candidates in each district.  Notice how much higher CD-2’s total raw vote was compared to black heavy CD-1 and CD-5.

And one more thing, owning up to the axiom of Tuesday that low black turnout helped red team have an easy night:  In CD-5, Beaver Cleaver did win re-election, but it wasn’t by much, 52-45.  Two years ago, in this same configuration of CD-5, Cleaver beat the same quixotic candidate (Jacob Turk) 61-37.  When the General Assembly was doing redistricting in 2011, I was wondering why the NAACP was so happy with CD-5, when I always thought that if a red wave was tall enough, it could knock it over.  Now I’ve been proven kinda right.

The popular vote combining the state’s eight districts was 59% R, 36% D and 5% others.  Backing out the two black gerrymanders, and it’s 66% R, 29% D and 5% others.  Not that every voter in CD-1 and CD-5 was black, so this means the generic white vote for Republicans in Missouri was on the order of 63%.  Which is 2% higher than what I think the white Missouri vote for Romney was two years ago.

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR

Bruce Rauner by 5.  Carried every county but Crook, and even in Crook, Quinn’s total percentage was somewhat down from four years ago.  One of many examples of lethargic black turnout making life easy for red team. Proving that is that even Alexander County (Cairo) was red.

The statewide numbers were 51-47-3.  Back out Crook County and it’s 61-35-4 in the rest of the state.

Not that I care.  Not that it’s going to amount to a hill of beans.  However, I do interpret some political imperative in the all-but-Crook-being-red map, just not an imperative that Rauner will do anything about while he is Governor.

ILLINOIS U.S. SENATE

Durbin by 10.  A bit closer than he’s used to, and I thought Jim Oberweis could have made it even closer. As it was, Oberweis won most counties.

If Harry Ass Reid steps down from party caucus leadership, it would seem obvious that Durbin, now the Assistant Majority Leader, would be a cinch to be the new Senate Minority Leader.  But Durbin also hails from the same state as Barack Obama, and if Democrats are in a move-on-from-Obama mood, they might want someone different.

OTHER ILLINOIS STATEWIDE RACES

As was expected, Democrats Jesse White (SOS) and Lisa Madigan (AG) easily.  Judy Baar Topinka turned back Shiela Simon for Comptroller, but narrowly.  Treasurer, only 0.1% or 3,500 votes separate Republican Tom Cross from Democrat Michael Frerichs, with Cross in the lead.  Expect a recount, and hope for Cross’s sake that nobody double crosses him.

ILLINOIS BALLOT MEASURES

All four won handily, as expected.  Though the minimum wage measure is non-binding, and the “voters’ rights” amendment, basically a veiled attempt to prohibit photo ID to vote requirements, will be useless if the Federal judiciary finds against the disparate impact doctrine in that Texas housing case it took up this term.

IL-12

Lethargic black turnout makes life easy for red team.

CD-12 includes East St. Louis and Cairo, all black pretty much, significantly black Belleville and Carbondale, and even Mount Vernon has a mini-ghetto.

Yet, the Congressional district with East St. Louis is about to be represented by a Republican.  The beagle murderer pulled it out.

Now, to be fair, it’s not as if IL-12 is one big ghetto.  It is 79% white in population, and its sudden swing away from the Democrats, away from a very long tenure for Jerry Costello followed by what turned out to be one term for Bill Enyart, has far more to do with working-middle class whites abandoning the blue team.  However, even then, Mike Bost’s margin over Bill Enyart, 11 points, and thus, the ability to call this race rather early, was immensely helped by low black turnout.

IL-13

Ann Callis was only fooling herself.

IL-15

John Shimkus?  75% of the vote?  I knew he was a cinch, but I never knew he had this kind of landslide in him.  I think this is his high water mark in his political career.

IL-10

The old Lake County district of now Sen. Mark Kirk.  It was redrawn in 2011 to make it more Democrat.  A Democrat did take it in 2012 from the Republican who succeeded Mark Kirk in 2010, and now a Republican has taken it back this year.  This and IL-12 are the only two D to R flips in Illinois.  Though two pretty shocking ones.

ILLINOIS STATE LEGISLATURE

Both chambers remain in Democrat control.  Democrats held serve in the House, and Republicans only flipped one Senate seat, though it means in the upper chamber, Democrats don’t have a veto-proof majority.