Same As Last Year

Kentucky

Silver Mines, on the disconnect between reality and polling in KY-GOV:

It’s not yet clear whether pollsters simply projected that more Democratic voters would show up than actually did or whether undecided voters broke overwhelmingly for the Republican candidates. The former suggests an electorate modeling problem that could be a big problem during the presidential primaries, when turnout is low. On the other hand, trouble modeling the electorate would be less of an issue in the 2016 general election, when turnout is at its highest.

However, if undecided voters broke toward the Republicans and the “fundamentals” — Kentucky is a very Republican-leaning state in federal elections — that could be a sign that a candidate hitting 50 percent in general election polls is a bigger deal than we previously thought. Remember, polls showed Democrat Mark Warner winning the 2014 Virginia Senate race easily with 50 percent of the vote; Warner earned almost exactly 50 percent, but he barely won.

There is a third option.

Which happens to be what turned out to be the correct explanation to last year’s disconnect between reality and polling.

People who intended to vote for Bevin and other Republican statewide office candidates all along were not honest with pollsters, passed themselves off as undecided when polled.

I think the real explanation, at least in this instance, is a combination of assuming a higher Democrat turnout than reality, overpolling Democrats of the nature of the selection biases of pollsters, and Republicans passing themselves off as undecideds.

Her So-Called Logic

Stillwater, Oklahoma

“I was suicidal.”

Okay, so why did you engage in an action that, according to the laws of physics, was way more likely to cause other people to die than cause yourself to die?

If I’m hot, I’m not going to turn the furnace on.

Really, if she wanted to commit suicide, she’d go into a room, with a gun or a bottle of pills or a knife or some arsenic, then close the door.

Ceteris paribus, we allow women way more leeway than men and way too much latitude in trying to pawn off criminal behavior on mental issues.  She’s floating this “I was suicidal” bullshit because she knows that a lot of people will buy it, because golden uterus.

The Quotes

Manhattan

DC plucks some juicy quotes in Trump’s new book:

“There are many different ways to make sure that Iran is never armed with nuclear weapons. I’d be happy to sit down with the Iranian leaders when they understand that the best course for them, if they want to be a major player in the civilized world, is to close down their entire nuclear program.”

This is more evidence that Trump’s own position on the Iran deal is like mine, that of moderate opposition. That said, he would do himself a huge favor by not optically or verbally associating himself with fanatical chicken little opponents. Some triangulation is in order here.

“Tipping your hand is one of the dumbest mistakes you can make in a military confrontation. I’ve read a lot of history and I don’t recall reading that General George Washington made hotel reservations in Valley Forge, or that he sent ahead his best wishes to the Hessians in Trenton. The element of surprise wins battles.”

I think Trump not only means this in terms of foreign-military policy, he also means this in regards to the anti-matter Clausewitz who said that politics is war by any other means. He’s indicating that he’s going to be lobbing a lot of surprise bombs when the calendar turns to 2016, in both the winter and spring, and in the fall, if he makes it that far.

All Bun and No Beef

South Florida

Congratulating thyselves for a lot of talking and a lot of writing.  Sixty years of standing athwart history and yelling, “slow down just a little bit!”

All of this talking and all of this writing and all of the media have helped the Republican Party be electorally as strong as it has ever been in the lifetimes of just about everyone reading these words, with the exception of that one very important elected office.

But…

What explains the severe disconnect between all this conservative media and all these red team election wins, and the lack of real accomplishments?

If you’ve been reading this space for long enough, you know I have several explanations.

Save Me San Francisco?

San Francisco

Sanctuary Ross out.

BUT…not for the reason we wanted him out, and his successful challenger, Feinstein-endorsed, has promised to keep Sanctuary City.

Crank it up, anyway.

Be There And Be Square

U-City

Anybody going to broach the subject of black people taking on frivolous debt and their propensity not to repay?

Crickets.

Intended Target

Chicago

I only briefly mentioned this matter yesterday, not even really mentioning it, just linking to a story about it.

Now the detectives are thinking he was deliberately targeted, (being shot at point blank range would seem to indicate), because his close relatives are feuding with a rival ook tribe.

HRC was in Chicago was in town on Monday, the day this happened. And of course she reacted to it, and of course nobody wants to ask her how this fits into her BLM-dindunuffins rhetoric.