2014 General Election Preview, Missouri and Illinois Edition

Same deal — I don’t have the time to cover as many races as I wish I did and I would have been able to in the past, even though I know more about various races than I ever have, both because of the day job.

If you want to put your two cents in on something I didn’t, as long as it’s MO/IL-related, or you have a question about something I didn’t cover here, let the comment section be your oyster.

As lively as this season has been nationally and in certain places, that’s how boring it has been in Missouri.  With one exception, and even that depended on subsequent events.  No Senate race, the only statewide race is a foregone conclusion, no real chances at any Congressional flips, and only marginal change in the two-party composition of the General Assembly in both chambers is expected, both chambers are overwhelmingly Republican.  The only “hot” ballot measure is Amendment 3, and mainly because it’s Rex Sinquefield’s bank account vs the MNEA’s war chest.

MISSOURI AUDITOR

If I ever get the notion to cast a vote for Tom Schweich, after what I went through two years ago, someone please shoot me point blank in the head.

Unfortunately, he’s a cinch to win, which means he’s going to be in good position for higher statewide office.  The state Republican establishment wanted him badly two years ago, so of course they’ll keep on wanting him to run for Senate or Governor in the near future.

I, however, will vote for one of the minor party candidates.

MISSOURI STATEWIDE BALLOT MEASURES

Amendment 2:  If it passes, then it would allow prosecutors to bring up the past sex crime conviction history in the trial phase of those who are standing trial for sex crimes involving victims who are under 18 years old.  The idea is that you don’t want a child who is a rape victim to have to re-live the trauma by testifying, so prosecutors should be able to do what they would otherwise not be allowed to do, talk about the defendant’s rap sheet, although in this case, only other sex crimes, as material evidence to convince the jury.  The reason why you can’t talk about a defendant’s prior rap sheet ordinarily during the trial phase is that it would bias the jury, who is only allowed to consider the facts of the case in front of them, and seeing if the prosecution can sell all twelve of them on beyond a reasonable doubt.

Evidently, most states have this special exception when it comes to sex crime defendants and minor victims.  I would ordinarily vote no because of the precedent, but I think there’s enough of a track record for all the other states to show that there’s no slippery slope involved.

Therefore, I will be voting YES on Amendment 2.

Amendment 3:  I will be voting NO on Amendment 3.  If it passes, it means that school districts will have carte blanche to fire older long experience highly paid white teachers who are unlucky enough to have classrooms full of low IQ black students, to replace them with a constant conga line of Can’t Teach for America cheap young social justice dingbats.

If only the MNEA had the gonads to say this using their war chest.

Amendment 6:  Would create a six days before the election early voting period and vote by mail system in Missouri.  I will be voting NO, because voter fraud.

Amendment 10:  Officially, it asks:  Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to require the governor to pay the public debt, to prohibit the governor from relying on revenue from legislation not yet passed when proposing a budget, and to provide a legislative check on the governor’s decisions to restrict funding for education and other state services?

As someone who works around Missouri state legislators, I will be voting YES.  This will end Gubernatorial budget and spending shenanigans which are a veiled form of political blackmail.

SENATE-10

I sorta already this this back in my primary preview.

If I lived in SEN-10, I would vote for Ed Schieffer, the Democrat.

And if he wins, it may well prevent Republicans from having 23 members in the Senate, i.e. they would be under a two-thirds supermajority, vastly impacting Republicans’ ability to override Nixon’s vetoes.

However, even if that much mattered to me, I still wouldn’t be that worried.  The reason is that if Schieffer does not join Republican override efforts, it will almost always be on legislation I wouldn’t want to become law anyway or bills about which I don’t have strong feelings.  Let me put it to you this way:  If it’s a gun bill, Schieffer would vote with the Republicans to override, but if it’s something like tort reform that’s too favorable to the insurance industry, he wouldn’t vote to override.  But I’m not hot for most tort reform anyway.  If it’s changing Missouri from closed shop to open shop (“right to work”), again he wouldn’t vote to override, but I don’t have a real hot opinion on RTW either way.

Ed Schieffer has been a solid reasonable voice in the Ferguson aftermath.  And if the State Senate does vote either to expel or censure Jamilah Nasheed and/or Maria Chappelle Nadal from the Senate for their repulsive Ferguson antics, he would vote the right way if he winds up going to the Senate.

As for whether or not he’ll win, it’s going to depend on his strength in the population centers of SEN-10, Lincoln and Warren Counties, or whether the red wave nationally will lift the Republican, Jeannie Riddle, in the rest of the district and in her home base of Callaway County.

JUDGES

Remember, a judge being thrown out due to the Plan Nine from Outer Space is very rare.  So assume that all judges on the ballot pursuant to the Plan Nine from Outer Space will win voter retention.

I will be voting NO on Supreme Court Justice Laura Stith and Appellate Court Judge Angela Quigless.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE

On August 5, Steve Stenger, who represents the big County Council district in South County, beat 11-year tenure black incumbent County Executive Charlie Dooley in the Democrat Primary, and did so with Circuit Attorney Bob McCulloch providing a lot of political wind to his back.

Four days later, in Ferguson…

You know the rest, especially since I’ve been covering it as a subplot of what was the biggest story in the country in the month of August.

The Republican nominee is Rickroller Stream, a term limited out State House member from Kirkwood.  Ordinarily, he would have had zero chance.  I wrote in my primary preview post that Stream’s only chance was for Dooley to win the Democrat Primary.  But, with Ferguson, and Stenger being so close to McCulloch, the black politicos in North County for the most part are backing Stream out of spite.  I still think Stenger is going to win handily, but this spiteful manuvering is the only reason Stream has even a slight prayer.  Congressman Lazy Clay is not cool with that, though.  In the hubbub, Rickroller Stream has been called a bipartisan champion for this and that by the blacks who are voting for him to spite McCulloch/Stenger, while he has been called a mouth breathing evil Tea Party extremists by people like Clay who don’t like that strategy.  In reality, Stream is neither — To me, and remember, “me” is now someone that works around state legislators, Stream is an average Republican member of the General Assembly when it comes to personal temprament and political temprament.  The only reason he even bothered running for County Executive is that he had nothing to lose.

I will be voting for STEVE STENGER, because if Stream wins, he thinks he’s going to owe the blacks.

This is the only political race in the area on this side of the river that has any measure of intrigue, precisely because of how it got intertwined with Ferguson.  But for Ferguson, this preview would have consisted of:  “I’m voting for Stream, but Stenger is going to win.”

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR

I lost all interest in Illinois gubernatorial politics back in February when all four major Republican contenders came out for drivers licenses for illegal aliens.

As for who is going to win, as if it really matters a hill of beans, all I can do is hearken back to four years ago, when I was enthusiastic about Bill Brady, and I actually was living in Illinois at the time and voted for Brady.  He had a slim lead going into election day, but wound up narrowly losing because Crook County came through for the blue.  And I think it’s going to happen again.  One thing I think that’s going to help make the difference are the issue referenda, (see below), the sorts that are engineered to turn out blue team voters.

ILLINOIS U.S. SENATE

Definitely do vote for Jim Oberweis.  Though it’s just his luck:  Now that he finally made it this far, he’s been a candidate so often that he has a reputation as a perennial candidate, and now he’s against Dick Durbin.  Oberweis isn’t the hard liner on immigration that he used to be, but even now he’s universes better than Durbin.  And this is why I think he can make it a bit interesting.  But at the end of the day, it’s Illinois, heavily dominated by Crook County, so Durbin won’t have to do much sweating.

OTHER ILLINOIS STATEWIDE OFFICES

Democrats Secretary of State Jesse White and Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topkina, all incumbents, will win re-election.  Interestingly, Topinka will beat current Lieutenant Governor Shiela Simon, who for some reason Pat Quinn kicked to the curb in favor of a new running mate this year.  What was behind that, I don’t know, or really care, but it also meant that Simon was free to run for another statewide office.  Because Dan Rutherford ran for Governor this year, this opens up Treasurer, and its two combatants are House Minority Leader Tom Cross, a Republican from Will County, and State Sen. Mike Frerichs, a Democrat from Champaign-Urbana.  A race that looks like Cross will win.

IL-13

I think Ann Callis is only fooling herself.  She’s not anything special, and any Democrat that is looking to topple a Republican in a slightly Republican district in a year like this is going to have to be special.

IL-12

Amazingly, the district with East St. Louis and Belleville is very much a toss-up this year.  This district and its rough equivalent in past decades has been Democrat for as long as I can remember, Jerry Costello holding it down for a long time and now Bill Enyart.  Mike Bost, a member of the State House from a district that includes Mount Vernon, Murphysboro and much of Carbondale, is putting up a very strong challenge.  It could go either way.

Bob Romanik, the de facto owner of the Insane Broadcasting trio of St. Louis radio stations, KZQZ, KQQZ and WQQX, is running editorials on his stations urging listeners to vote for Enyart because Bost inhumanely killed a beagle.  Who knows, that might make the difference.

ILLINOIS STATEWIDE BALLOT MEASURES

The only one of the five I recommend voting for is the Crime Victims Bill of Rights.  The others, which I describe below, vote no.

The Birth Control measure, which would require health plans that have prescription drug coverage to include prescription birth control, will affect hardly anyone and anything, because the only health plans that I could conceivably think of that have drug coverage but not B/C are ones offered by Catholic organizations.  But it’s designed to goose turnout of single white women.

The Millionaire Tax would raise the state marginal income tax rate on incomes over $1 million from 5% to 8%, the proceeds would be used to fund education.  Though what’s interesting there is when the state income tax rate was raised from 3% to 5% several years ago, we were told that that was only temporary.  I surmise that if they’re creating a separate 8% bracket for millionaire incomes, that 5% for everyone else is permanent.

The Minimum Wage measure would raise the state minimum wage from $8.25 to $10.  This is designed to goose the turnout of burger flipping Shaniquas.

Right to Vote Amendment:  This is a thinly veiled mechanism that may well mean that Illinois could never require photo ID to vote.  This one is designed to turn out the elderly black women who have been convinced by the Democrat-left-MSNBC race arsonist hate machine that photo ID to vote is indicative of some great conspiracy to take votes away from black people, so that we go back to the pre civil rights era bad ole days of lynching and segregated water fountains.