USA
Trump took a very big step to the nomination last night. However, I don’t think he threw the TKO punch, yet.
And I think this in spite of the disappointing nights that Big and Little Ricky had. Big Ricky needed to win Texas with an absolute majority, and win both Arkansas and Oklahoma, to remain credible. The only one of those things he did was win Oklahoma, and he even finished in third in Georgia behind Little Ricky, mainly because Atlanta metro counties went for Little Ricky. Speaking of Little Ricky, while he did win the caucuses in Minnesota, mainly because they remember the Timberwolves once had a point guard named Ricky Rubio, he needed another win somewhere else to stay credible. The closest he got to another win was Virginia, because Northern Virginia has a lot of military-industrial complex dependent Republican voters. And he showed surprising strength in urban areas, Atlanta got him to a second place finish in Georgia, and because he carried Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, he was able to finish a very strong third there, he finished closer to Trump than Trump finished to Big Ricky. But, the delegate math wasn’t kind to him last night. And while Trump won Vermont, the Mailman’s Son showed very surprising strength there, and his take in Virginia probably kept Little Ricky from winning that state. Which probably proves that the Mailman’s Son hasn’t dropped out yet because he’s trying to extract blood from Little Ricky, as they’re in the same political lane, so that Trump will give him something.
The reason I don’t think Trump landed the TKO punch is that, as I write this, Trump has 285 delegates, and all the other candidates who have won delegates have 285, with some more from yesterday’s voting to be handed out. I don’t think TKO comes for another two weeks; both Little Ricky’s Florida and the Mailman’s Son’s Ohio go that day, and both are winner-take-all, and Trump lands the TKO if he wins both.
As for the other party, HRC’s black firewall held up, for the most part. Though Bern’s win in Oklahoma was strange, because Oklahoma City and Tulsa have a lot of blacks. However, Bern not able to win neighboring Massachusetts really damaged him; I happen to think HRC winning Massachusetts was her TKO over him.
Countenance Blog 
A few days ago, he “joked” about assassinating him. Now, he thinks he needs him.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/01/lindsey-graham-we-may-be-in-a-position-where-we-have-to-rally-around-ted-cruz-video/
Republicans: Although at first I was disappointed in FoamBoy’s win and relative “place” votes you spotlight, aren’t two contenders for the Anti-Trump coming out of Tuesday a better tactical situation for Trump than one humiliating loss for Rubio? They keep splitting the non-Trump vote. So maybe this is good. Rubio has a tough sell that he’s the one who can beat Hillary, when he can’t win his own party. I’ll laugh heartily if he loses FL.
Dems: Bernie’s showing in OK didn’t surprise me. My daughter (in Tulsa) is in his supporter’s age demo and she has lots of friends and says she doesn’t know a single Hillary supporter. They all love Bernie. OKC fancies itself a hip and progressive place, and Bernie is (or was) flavor of the month there. The black folk in this state aren’t particularly militant. So Bernie’s win didn’t surprise me.
I don’t think both Big and Little Ricky staying in or one dropping out makes much of a difference for Trump’s sake. What I do know is that neither one of them is going to drop out just to help the other.
That’s not the dynamic at work here. Having multiple “splitters” in the race at this time only hurts Trump.
The whole game is to try and deny Trump a clear majority of delegates, and with the structure of the pre-15th primaries, more candidates equals more division of delegates. Any candidate (Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, heck, even Carson) that drops out sends at least some votes and delegates to Trump and makes him getting a clear majority MORE likely.
See, the race isn’t between Trump and any one candidate, the race is between Trump and everybody else, because if Trump doesn’t have a clear majority before Cleveland, they’ll broker the convention to dildo Trump out of the nomination. Either Cruz or Rubio dropping out would actually HURT whichever stayed in, one of them (or maybe even Kasich) will be the establishment choice if the convention is brokered.
In reality, Juan Ellis Bush’s dropping out left them with one fewer “splitter,” and was a mistake, strategically, but Juan was probably too gutless and/or stupid to stick to it.
Some might say “Why someone like Cruz or Rubio or Kasich as the establishment nominee? They can’t win versus Clinton!” Why yes, that’s exactly the point. Losing an election where they control the nominee doesn’t hurt the GOP at all, they’ll all still be in jobs and still in control of the apparatus. On the other hand, nominating Trump DOES put much of the GOP out of jobs, especially if Trump wins the Presidency.
@TipTopTopKek: thanks for that post. The key to understanding Trump’s challenge with a reluctant RNC is as you say, with such delegate calculations. I read a good article yesterday on just how the Repub establishment could plot a theft of the nomination from Trump. If he goes into the convention with less than the magic number, the delegates are released on the second vote. Then the knives come out.
At the same time, it’s going to take a desperate act of voter/constituent nullification to put into action. I suspect it would be a pyrrhic victory.
Whereas it’s still possible a “unified” candidate (which it doesn’t look like they’ll get) could win the old-fashioned way, but against very steep odds right now. So maybe it’s a crap-shoot at this point whether Trump is better off with this divided field.
I almost hope the R. establishment does attempt the “dildo maneuver” with a brokered convention, because then we get across the Rubicon with voter anger. Maybe. And possibly, then we get a new party that is unabashedly pro-White, and the R. party crumbles like Dracula in a bright beam of sunshine.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/03/01/on_fox_news_karl_rove_says_virginia_race_is_tightening_gets_proved_wrong.html
Karl Rove Says Virginia Race Is Tightening, Gets Proved Wrong in Less Than 10 Seconds
Trump did slightly worse than expected, so the race is still on. I do remember complaining about the nominations being decided before march 1st last time around, so I should be careful what I wish for.
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/271486-goldman-sachs-employee-placed-on-paid-leave-for-trump-contributions-website
Goldman, which has been leading Wall Street firms in contributing to presidential campaigns, have sent most of their contributions to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — more than $199,000 — while $94,000 has gone to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
I’d never thought I’d live to see the day when the Republican establishment loves closed Republican primaries. Four and eight years ago, they hated them.
Cruz being able to win is the only break they have on the Trump Train.
https://twitter.com/matthew_sitman/status/704847932302950400
https://twitter.com/sbpdl/status/704851202173968384
https://twitter.com/Ricky_Vaughn99/status/705026349031923712
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/the-trump-tipping-point/471840/
“A generation of work with African Americans—slow, patient work—I can’t tell you how great it is that we’ve pissed that away because of Donald Trump in one day,” sputtered Rick Wilson, a Florida admaker who had been agitating for months that Trump needed to be stopped.
Yes, if you look back at 2008 and 2012, you can clearly see the inroads the Republican Black Outreach movement had made into what surely otherwise would have been a landslide demo for BHO. Thanks for your hard work, Mr. Wilson. It’s not your fault Trump spoiled that carefully cultivated stealth plan.
A generation of slow, patient work, that culminated in President Butt Naked being elected and reelected by the Affirmitive-Action-Americans voting Democrat Party at over 90% rates.
You have to marvel at the Repub brainiacs who would happily swap 10 disaffected White voters for one black who pondered a minute or two before ultimately pulling the Dem lever. “We’re getting a hearing from black voters!! They might even be natural conservatives…”.
Yeh, that “generation of work with African Americans” has really paid off for the Republicrats hasn’t it? What a crock of BS!!!!!
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2016/03/02/3755065/trump-criminal-justice/
‘Lethal Injection Is Too Comfortable’: What Criminal Justice Could Look Like Under President Trump
Donald Trump, Jr. Interview on The Political Cesspool This Saturday
http://mediamatters.org/research/2016/03/01/donald-trumps-campaign-gave-press-credentials-t/208939
Donald Trump’s Campaign Gave Press Credentials To A White Nationalist Radio Program
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/trumps-son-gives-interview-to-pro-slavery-host.html
The Trump campaign, however, denies that any such interview took place. The campaign told The Hill that Donald Jr. was not in attendance at Saturday’s rally, and did not “to his knowledge” grant Edwards an interview this past week. The campaign did not dispute the fact that Edwards was granted full press credentials.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/low-info-voters-and-the-blogosphere-bubble-55-of-adults-havent-heard-these-trump-stories/
Trump’s short stubby fingers will certainly change a lot of minds.
Magic Negro to Drop Out
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ben-carson-to-tell-supporters-he-sees-no-path-forward-for-campaign/2016/03/02/d6bef352-d9b3-11e5-891a-4ed04f4213e8_story.html
I don’t imagine why, after all, black people were lined up for miles to vote for him.
He and his handlers, led by John Philip Sousa IV, lined their pockets over several months.
Farewell, Magic Negro! You tried to teach us how to relax, even during stressful events like nationally televised debates. You tried to teach us that even very short naps are well-worth the taking. Alas, Zen Chill Master, we were unable to grasp your message. I suppose we just weren’t ready.
Trump 319 the field 363, delegate race so far.
That’s not real good.
Cucks seek to ban Trump from CPAC
http://makeamericaawesome.com/urge-the-american-conservative-union-to-revoke-donald-trumps-invitation-to-speak-at-cpac/
I don’t know if Trump would even want to go. I wouldn’t.
They wouldn’t let Coulter speak last year, even though she’s their most popular speaker.
VDare is live-tweeting it this morning.
TipTipTopKek
Your analysis is sparkling and spot on and stellar if the primary or caucus in question isn’t winner take all. But if it is, and starting March 15, some will be, most importantly, Ohio and Florida on that day, then Trump needs to finish in first place. I think that if Trump wins both, then that’s the TKO, if he wins only one, it still goes on, but if he doesn’t win both, then hello brokered convention.
I actually mentioned the context of the pre-15th primaries with respect to “splitters.”
We’ve both done the same math and gotten the same results with respect to the WTA States.
Florida appears to be a given. It’s Ohio that is the question. If Trump takes Ohio he’ll have about a +130 delegate lead over the rest of the field combined (and that is what counts, the combination, Trump needs the clear majority), and then the GOP starts campaigning for Clinton.
If he loses Ohio, I think Trump still has better than even odds of winning overall, because of New York and California, both of which I can see Trump (essentially) taking. But who in our anti-GOP camp wants to see it go down to that wire?
No way he loses Florida legitimately. If he loses it illegitimately, well then, we’re really no worse off than we were before Trump started running, are we? Actually still far better off, because the Overton is shifted and clarity has been added to many people as to who their enemies are … their purported “leaders.” Ditto if they dildo the convention with any unforeseen rule changes and try to install their own nominee despite Trump winning by the currently existing rules.
http://atr.rollcall.com/can-senate-gop-hold-majority-trump/
“It will be a complete and total disaster,” said Rob Jesmer, a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “I’m not saying people cannot win with him at top of the ticket, but remember how challenging Todd Akin was? That would look like child’s play compared to what we’re about to deal with with Trump.”
Au contraire, I can easily see Trump winning states where the Senate Republican candidate loses at the same time, because Trump won’t have coattails that spill downballot. For instance, Wisconsin: I can easily see how Trump wins it but Ron Johnson loses to Russ Feingold.
http://thefederalist.com/2016/03/02/super-tuesdays-results-prove-that-trump-can-be-beaten/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/02/the-republican-establishment-waited-too-long-to-stop-donald-trump-now-they-probably-cant/
Considering it was his own state, Cruz’s Texas win was weak:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/336391/
Wilson Give “Advice” to Politicians Endorsing Trump
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/01/endorsing-trump-gop-office-holder-go-fetch-your-shinebox.html
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/271498-romney-to-hold-speech-addressing-2016-race
And we care about his opinions because …. ????? …..
Wait until they bring in McCain….No wait….He’s up for re-election and the danged fence still isn’t built. Never mind.
Bob Dole isn’t busy these days. I’m sure that a man can get so old that even Viagra won’t work anymore.
ROMNEY PRAISES TRUMP: Trump has shown an extraordinary ability to understand how our economy works & to create jobs
Dole already endorsed Trump I think.
Rubio.
McCain/Romney 2016. Theme to be played at rallies: “Do That To Me One More Time”.
https://twitter.com/FredZeppelin12/status/705133045880217602
Usually a candidate in Trump’s position gets stronger week by week. Winning primaries builds momentum. Several cucks have admitted someone doing as well as Trump has so far wins the nomination.
Trump is significantly better off and better poised right now compared to Romney 2012 and McCain 2008 at the same point in the process.
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/02/republican-oligarchy-vs-we-the-people/
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/murdoch-gop-mad-not-to-unify-if-trump-wins-nomination/article/2584763
Funny because at least for awhile, FNC was the Jeb channel and later the Pool Boy channel.
Which makes me think that, in spite of the grief that a lot of us (me not included) gave Trump at the time for signing the loyalty pledge that Rinse Pree-Bus brought to Trump Tower for him to sign, turns out it was a gamble that’s paying off on Trump’s behalf. Pree-Bus et al. assumed, like every talking head did at the time, that he couldn’t possibly win the nomination, so the pledge was bounding him to the eventual nominee, who would not be himself. Now, the pledge seems to be binding all of them to him.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/marco-rubio-just-lost-fox-news.html
According to three Fox sources, Fox chief Roger Ailes has told people he’s lost confidence in Rubio’s ability to win. “We’re finished with Rubio,” Ailes recently told a Fox host. “We can’t do the Rubio thing anymore.”
https://twitter.com/ratlifhu/status/705096980725374977
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/02/kristol-lays-strategy-give-white-house-hillary-trump-shouldnt-win/
You know, if Bern had any serious traction on the Democrat side, and Jeb! or Pool Boy was winning it on the Republican side, we’d be seeing mirror image articles in Democrat/left media, to sabotage Bern, and tolerate the Republican, in order to save the Democrat/neoliberal/corporate establishment.
Who has made more wrong predictions over the years, Bill Kristol or his underling Fred Barnes?
Harry Reid disagrees with my relatively cautious analysis. Third paragraph.
http://www.12news.com/news/nation-now/after-meeting-obama-and-gop-remain-at-impasse-over-supreme-court-vacancy/63276214
“From that fundamental misunderstanding, he reveals that the person he will nominate, not appoint, will be someone whose decisions are not tied to the Constitution’s text,” Grassley argued.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-can-republicans-still-take-the-nomination-away-from-trump/
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/delegate-math-trump-has-clearest-path-but-heres-how-he-can-still-lose/article/2584702
Blogmeister Echo Syndrome:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/02/the_flaw_in_the_cruz_campaign
Sean Trende figured out a long time ago that the missing voters weren’t necessarily doctrinaire conservatives.
Pool Boy and more shady lobbyists
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/breaking-senator-marco-rubio-drug-scandal-exposed-new-report/
File this one under “How Washington Works”.
Worst Case Scenario
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/01/how-the-gop-insiders-plan-to-steal-the-nod-from-trump/
https://whoresoftheinternet.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/trump-vp-ann-coulter-and-make-the-pick-right-now/
Charles Krauthammer has just been quoted approvingly by NRO calling for Cruz and Rubio to “open the bomb bay doors and carpet-bomb Trump.”
Eloquence….
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/03/01/trump-ally-fox-judge-and-911-truther-andrew-nap/208928
Trump Ally: Fox Judge And 9/11 Truther Andrew Napolitano Is “Probably Trump’s Number One Pick For” Supreme Court
BTW, Trump’s Twitter following has more than doubled since he announced for President.
http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463
GOP Statisticians Develop New Branch Of Math To Formulate Scenarios In Which Trump Doesn’t Win Nomination