Political Debating Is Useless, Part Too Many to Count

28 09 2016

Hempstead, New York

I wrote in AR a few minutes ago:

By the end of the weekend, I predict that:

(1) Credible scientific polling will show that more people think that Hillary won the debate than Trump won the debate, probably by a significant to landslide margin

(2) Based off the debate, and again from credible scientific polling, the support needle will move somewhat Trump’s way.

As contradictory as it may seem.

How can we reconcile this paradox?

Easy. With what I have written in this space fairly often, and in other places, and have said to a fair number of people:

Political debating is useless and irrelevant.

That’s because political debates are (DUH) political, not academic nor Aristotelian.

Put the two together, and we learn that winning the debate and winning the politics of the debate are two different things.

As an example, even if the polls show that she won the debate compared to him by a 90-10 margin, him hitting her on NAFTA and trade issues means that he wins the politics off the debate, no matter what else happens in the debate. That’s because the politics of trade issues is important to crucial marginal swing constituencies; they don’t care about birth certificates or Venezuelan hood ornaments or Line 48B on tax returns.

On top of that, the forces which move needles in electoral politics are way more powerful than, and have nothing to do, with these charades mislabeled “debates.”

You may remember, especially if you are or once were a Ted Cruz supporter, that that was my rejoinder to the notion that his supporters peddled here about a year and a half ago (well before Trump announced) that he’d clean up in Republican debates. And I agreed at the time that he would, and as it turned out, he did well in them. If the debates were academic affairs, he would have won them in that way, too, because he already has a shelf full of trophies that he won in academic debates. But it would not have mattered, and as we can see, it didn’t matter. Because Cruz was eloquently debating on behalf of an ideology that is getting less and less relevant to fewer and fewer people.

***





First Debate Open Thread

26 09 2016

Hempstead, New York

Any suggestions on a drinking game?

I’ll be semi-crashing someone’s viewing party, so if I have any live commentary, it will be on the Tweeter.





Fried Chicken? Nah, I’m Good.

26 09 2016

Brooklyn

Reuters:

One would expect voters from the heavily Democratic Brooklyn neighborhood of Cobble Hill to pick presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 general election. Just don’t expect them to advertise it.

Like lawns and windowsills in liberal pockets across the country, much of the neighborhood is bereft of pro-Clinton signage in the final weeks before the election. It’s a stark contrast to the 2012 and 2008 campaigns, when President Barack Obama whipped up a frenzy of support from Democrats and his signature “Hope” and “Forward” signs were ubiquitous.

The scarcity of lawn and window signs is an indication of the Democratic nominee’s struggle to generate enthusiasm among left-leaning voters, a challenge that’s borne out in polling data, and could potentially haunt her if voters fail to turn out on election day.

Her national campaign offices are in Brooklyn.  Curiously, they’re in a recently renovated Brooklyn skyscraper that is on the intersection of the downtown Brooklyn streets of Tillary and Clinton.

What should also give her campaign pause to read this is that her policies and Democrat party policies during the Hopeychange Era are in the wheelhouse of Brooklyn white progressives.  Their not being so excited for her is like black people being ambivalent about the idea of having fried chicken for supper.





Pop Goes the Narrative

20 09 2016

Manhattan

Like I’ve been saying, for more than a year, if Trump even does as little as one percent better among Hispanics than Romney did, a whole lot of narratives, a whole lot of careers, and a subset of an industry, is down the toilet and out the door.





Establishment Is

20 09 2016

Kennebunkport, Maine

41 will vote for HRC.

As establishment does.





Birther Death Certificate

17 09 2016

Washington, D.C.

The best thing that fell out of the design of Trump trolling and Rickrolling the media is that for the first time, the Clintons and Sid Vicious are having to go on the defensive and be held accountable for the fact that they originated this Obama birther business.  What that’s doing is making most people aware that the Clintons started it, and that was not widely known before yesterday.

I never paid much attention to it, nor cared for it as a tactic, for two main reasons:

1. What Hunter Wallace said.

2. That even if the matter was pressed in Federal court, they would find, “at best,” that while the American citizenship laws that were extant in 1961 meant that Baraq Obama was not a natural born citizen (if he was actually born in Kenya), that they would find them unconstitutional, that they should have never existed, and that Mr. Obama was indeed a natural born citizen because he has one American parent.





Eliminationism

13 09 2016

Washington, D.C.

Just when John Hinkley is released from supervision.