Grandmaster Trump, The Message

27 08 2015

Manhattan

Trump to red team brass: No third party or independent run for me.

One could interpret this as Trump surrendering on a point.

But one could also interpret it as Trump saying that he really wants to be President, and knows that he doesn’t have much of a chance if he doesn’t win a major party nomination.  If he doesn’t win the Republican nomination and runs as a third party or independent major vote getter, he’ll be like Perot, in that he’ll get a sizable percentage of the popular vote but won’t actually win any states and won’t get an Electoral College votes.  And, contra my fantasy that a third candidate Trump could draw from both the Democrat and Republican nominees roughly equally, the hard truth of the matter is that way more Democrats are happy with the Democrat Party than Republicans are with the Republican Party, and that Trump as a third candidate would draw blood from the R over the D by at around a 2:1 margin.  Consider Perot in 1992:  The popular vote was 43/38/19, and operating on the assumption that it would have been a tie popular vote without Perot, as the very late opinion polls showed, 12 of Perot’s 19 would have been Bush voters and the other 7 would have been Clinton voters.  Meaning Perot’s blood drawing was a 12:7 ratio, or, a 1.7:1.





The Deal

26 08 2015

Manhattan

Trump_the_art_of_the_deal

I finally had enough relatively free time in one evening to knock back the rest of it.  I only got a little more than halfway through in a week and a half, that’s when I bought the Kindle edition.

The reason I wanted to read it is because I want to get inside his head and see if I can discern some sort of ulterior motive or less than above board agenda in his running for President.  All the conventional explanations that involve an explanation other than “he really wants the job” don’t hold dihydrogen monoxide.  The problem in this case is that “his head” at the time he wrote this book was the “him” of 1987, when he was 41 years old, just three years older than I am right now.  Since then, another 28 years have gone by, and shrinking Trump’s 69-year old head might be a whole lot different than shrinking his 41-year old head.  Almost 70 is a lot different than just past 40.

But, just going on this old information, he’s not being disingenuous at all by running for President.  If he didn’t want to be President, he wouldn’t run, and in fact, his natural tendency is to lean on the power of negative thinking.  But, once he does dedicate himself to something, he finds more excitement in the deal making, the negotiation, the salesmanship of big things, than he does the actual product of the deal.

He’s running for President because he’s trying to swing the ultimate deal with the most difficult crew on the other side of the table.  The Presidency, and the American electorate, respectively.  Anything else he can accomplish in the real estate world or the business world would seem anticlimactic, so there’s only one thing left that would jazz him.

He also sorta gets off on hostile corporate takeovers, and I think he thinks he’s doing a hostile takeover of the Republican Party.  Judging from the tone of his newfound political opponents, they are also interpreting what he is up to in that way.  Just as he might have thought that fill in the blank international hotel chain is full of managers that are simultaneously incompetent, corrupt, bought off, and never held accountable to anyone for it, so it was time to start buying lots of its stock, he very likely has the same feelings about today’s Republican Party.  But, instead of buying stocks, he’s hustling for Republican primary and caucus votes.

Some fear that because he is used to the business world, and in Trump’s case, the kind of business where he’s free from sclerotic corporate bureaucratic red tape, because the Trump Organization is a privately held corporation and not publicly traded, that he might get a culture shock if he makes the lateral move to politics where bureaucratic red tape is everybody’s life blood.  But even the just past 40 Donald Trump had a whole lot of experience with negotiating with difficult personalities, including New York City government under Ed Koch; I don’t think D.C. would really be a hard transition for him.





I Can Call ‘Em

26 08 2015

Your Blogmeister’s Desk

I remember saying and writing elsewhere, and maybe here, as early as the spring of 2014, that the only way the Republican establishment and its hand picked candidate, Jeb!, was going to be beaten for the Presidential nomination is at the hands of someone who, while running as a Republican, is able to, for either substantive or psychological or oratorical reasons, portray himself as someone who is not part of the Republican mainstream and lamestream conservative mainstream, all while running on something of a populist mantle.

I didn’t actually think someone would actually be able to do that, and if I thought someone had a chance to do it, it was going to be Jeff Sessions.  I never dreamed that my prediction could come true in the person of Donald Trump.  Furthermore, while Trump is going enough in a lot of ways to separate himself from the party lamestream, he is getting a lot of help in that area from his enemies.  Every cuckservative or RINO or establishment Republican that screams, “Trump’s not a loyal Republican!” or “Trump’s not really a true conservative” is only singing sweet music to Trump’s ears; as far as I care, it’s an in-kind campaign contribution.





Contrast Matters

26 08 2015

Seattle

Rand Paul is willing to meet with #BLM.

Donald Trump openly tells #BLM to make his day, then sends them and everyone like them a message with his very first deportation.

Which one is coming through with a big 3% in the polls?

 





Unforced Error

26 08 2015

Dubuque, Iowa

For once, he’s substantively wrong.

St. Louis is not a metropolitan area that is conducive to the kind of immigration that is associated with immigrant-heavy gangs.  In fact, it’s not much conducive to much immigration to begin with.

Therefore, St. Louis’s gangs are almost entirely black thangs, you better understand.

An unforced error which he could have avoided if he only read this space.





Alpha Male

25 08 2015

Alexandria, Virginia

DC:

The focus group was made up of 29 people, six of whom said they no longer support Trump but did in the past. Asked to describe Trump in one word or phrase, the answers varied: “businessman,” “brave,” “successful,” “results,” “decisive,” “leader,” “guts,” “charismatic,” “bombastic,” “not a politician,” “not P.C.,” “true American,” “brash,” “decisive,” “kick ass and take names.”

I remember Zell Miller’s keynote speech to the Republican National Convention in 2004.  A lot of talking heads were taken aback at his forceful speaking style.  One thing I noticed about it is that he controlled the crowd, at times, when they wanted to break out in sustained cheering, and he thought it wasn’t the kind of line that needed to be cheered, he quickly cut off the cheering by continuing his remarks but speaking the next few words more loudly than he would have otherwise spoken them.  Once upon a time, most political oratory was like this.  The reason it’s not anymore is because the consultants have conned the politicians into thinking that they all need to be wet noodles in order not to offend soccer moms.

Turns out the consultants were all long.  Chicks dig the long ball, soccer moms dig the alpha male politician.





Spry Jeb!

25 08 2015

McAllen, Texas

Yeah, I’ve noticed that too, that Jeb! is a lot more spry when campaigning in Spanish.

He’s running for President of the wrong country.

Speaking of which, if Hitler Week doesn’t work, before Trump’s enemies try Brutus Week, I think what will happen is that the donor cabal will force every other non-Trump non-Jeb! candidate out of the race so that it can be a Trump-Jeb! mano-a-mano. In hopes that one non-Trump can beat Trump in a one-on-one game.








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