Huey and Dewey Versus Louie

24 05 2015

Miami

More birddogging for the ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1, and it overestimates the power and leverage of non-white voters in general.

But it does get to a few good points, like:

Ayres also points out that the GOP’s support among whites is not evenly distributed across the country. He notes that Romney won “overwhelming margins” among whites in conservative Southern states, but won fewer than half the white vote in Northern states such as Maine, Vermont, Iowa, New Hampshire and Oregon. More importantly, Romney won fewer white votes than he needed in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

That’s half the reason why Romney lost.

The other half:

He lists any number of GOP candidates who have won significant portions of Hispanic voters in state races and includes an interesting table that shows that, even if all the “missing white voters” had turned out in 2012 and if Romney had won them all, “he still would have lost the election.”

Which means the missing northern working-middle class Republican-leaning independent whites turning out plus Romney getting more Hispanic voters wouldn’t have given him the election.  What was the big hurdle?  All the middle aged and elderly black women that turned out in droves. Something that Ayres doesn’t seem to recognize.

Ayres suggests:

Ayres’s demographic analysis looks at the issue of a changing United States from the perspective of the growing minority population (and his party’s weaknesses there) and the majority white population (and his party’s strengths and limitations there). His argument is straightforward: To win the White House, Republicans must systematically improve their performance among minorities while maintaining or even improving their support among white voters.

Okay, so how is it possible to do better among both crucial northern whites and minorities at the same time?  Answer:  Make the election everyone else versus blacks.  On the sly, stroke up the growing fear that Hispanics and Asians have about the black undertow.  With ooks in city after city jonesing to turn their own cities inside out this summer, and maybe also next, to add to Ferguson last summer, stirring up resentment of the black undertow will be as easy as picking rich ripe luscious delicious low hanging fruit.

Ayers asks:

The coming Republican nomination contest will test the appeal of the candidates with both groups of voters. Is there any candidate who can raise the share of the nonwhite vote and attract more white votes in the Midwest?

It won’t be Ayers’s boss, Marco Rubio, who just turned in a yes vote on TPP, and was half of “Schumer-Rubio,” aka Gang Bangers of Eight.





Grab the Popcorn

22 05 2015

Chicago

Don’t look now, but IL-SEN-D (March 15, 2016) is starting to get really interesting, in a way that points to problems that have been brewing under the surface in that party that are going to blow wide open once Baraq Obama’s sun is on the evening horizon.

Yes, I’m talking about the progressivetard stack.

Until now, the nomination pretty much belonged to Asian-American Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, who holds down IL-8, west suburbs between O’Hare and Elgin.  But in recent days, the Rahm-Daley machine has been heavily pushing for one Andrea Zopp, a mulattress who heads the Chicago Urban League and is on the CPS Board of Education, to get in the race.  Because the big worry is that even with this race being in 2016 and the turnout advantage this will give the Democrat nominee versus Mark Kirk, the number crunchers are still worried that the black vote in Cook County might not be all that jazzed to turn out for an Asian.

And as we have seen in recent media hoopla over Silicon Valley hiring practices, Asians are suddenly not diverse and are almost honorary white people when we’re supposed to be worried about NAMs.  The very definition of “diversity” is a moving goalpost.





People Can Sometimes Believe Their Own Propaganda

22 05 2015

Miami

Some have floated the theory that this is nothing more than planted boob bait written precisely with the hopes that the Republican Party does nominate Marco Rubio, at which time HRC will mop the floor with him.

I don’t think it is boob bait.  I think that it’s nothing more than a matter of people believing their own propaganda.

What’s behind all of this?

ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1

Implicit in this missive is the false assumption that the Hispanic vote is that big, that important, that crucial or that relevant to the winner of Presidential elections.  But, since all you heard for months after November 6, 2012 was that Romney lost because Romney only got 27% of Hispanics (ICYMI:  That’s a correlation without causation), the Beltway consensus is starting to solidify mentally around the fiction of the ZOMG GREAT HISPANIC VOTER TIDAL WAVE LOL~!!!!!1.

So, if a Hispanic starts showing decently in Republican Presidential polls, Democrats start worrying because they actually believe their own propaganda, which is also the propaganda of the RINO cheap labor lobby.  They actually think that a Republican nominee named Marco Rubio can seriously eat into the Hispanic vote nationally, and therefore, (supposedly) seriously threaten HRC’s chances to win the whole bag of marbles.  Inconvenient truth:  Hispanic voters pick HRC over Rubio by more than a 2-1 margin in a hypothetical matchup in polling.

There’s also a big phat whopper in today’s NYT article.  It claims that Romney’s 27% was the nadir of Hispanics voting Republican, when in reality that honor goes to Bob Dole in 1996, who got 21%.





The Real Danger of Lindsey Graham

20 05 2015

South Carolina

He’s so ridiculous and over the top that even Ben Domenech is calling him a kook.  Note:  Domenech does get a few things wrong here as a matter of substance, but I’m not going to nitpick because I have to make a really important point.

I think analyzing Lindsey Graham based on his serious (non-) chances to win the nomination is looking at it the wrong way.

Where you have the ridiculous, you will eventually find the sublime.  Where you have the bad cop, you will eventually find the good cop.  Graham is ridiculous and a bad cop, for sure.  But that begs the question:  We know he has no chance on his own, but who is the sublime and the good cop that’s going to seem to be all the more desirable because Graham is going to be on the debate stage?  Let me ask it another way:  Will Jeb Bush all of a sudden seem like the more “responsible” invade the worlder invite the worlder simply because Lindsey Graham is in the field?

I’m not making the specific allegation that Jeb is having Graham run for that reason.  All I know is that if I was running, I’d want a really wacky and unhinged version of myself in the field so that I seem like the more reasonable alternative, that people are voting for me to save the world from the worse version of me.

UPDATE 1:45 PM

A Rush caller just floated the same theory, that Graham is the Bandit to Jeb Bush’s Snowman.





What the Hillary?

18 05 2015

Chappaqua, New York

WaPo:

Clinton is banking on the Obama coalition to win

Hillary Rodham Clinton is running as the most liberal Democratic presidential front-runner in decades, with positions on issues from gay marriage to immigration that would, in past elections, have put her at her party’s precarious left edge.

Elderly black women really care about gay marriage and open borders?





Identity Olympics

14 05 2015

USA

Why hasn’t the scandalapalooza knocked HRC from her pretty high Democrat Presidential primary and caucus perch?

It’s not hard.

For one, Democrat voters have not yet come to the conclusion that the Foundation scandal will make it any less likely that she will beat fill-in-the-blank Republican in November.  If and when they start thinking that, then Katie bar the door.

Second, today’s Democrat party is pretty much all about the Identity Olympics and being fringier than thou and the progressivetard stack.  Every purported serious Democrat in this race other than HRC has the severe handicap of being a white cishet man, therefore, they are not only below HRC on the ‘Stack, they are at its rock bottom.  It’s going to take someone at least on the same level as HRC on the ‘Stack (e.g. the Dime Store Indian) or higher in order to knock HRC off.

Martin O’Malley’s only real hope is to come out as gay.





Marco Rubio’s Foreign Policy Manifesto

13 05 2015

Miami

I don’t care what he says, or what’s written on some piece of paper or some website.

All I need to know is that Sheldon Adelson is writing him checks.

Therefore, invade the world invite the world in hock to the world.

Of course, it would probably be that even if Sheldon Adelson wasn’t writing him checks.








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