But it does get to a few good points, like:
Ayres also points out that the GOP’s support among whites is not evenly distributed across the country. He notes that Romney won “overwhelming margins” among whites in conservative Southern states, but won fewer than half the white vote in Northern states such as Maine, Vermont, Iowa, New Hampshire and Oregon. More importantly, Romney won fewer white votes than he needed in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
That’s half the reason why Romney lost.
The other half:
He lists any number of GOP candidates who have won significant portions of Hispanic voters in state races and includes an interesting table that shows that, even if all the “missing white voters” had turned out in 2012 and if Romney had won them all, “he still would have lost the election.”
Which means the missing northern working-middle class Republican-leaning independent whites turning out plus Romney getting more Hispanic voters wouldn’t have given him the election. What was the big hurdle? All the middle aged and elderly black women that turned out in droves. Something that Ayres doesn’t seem to recognize.
Ayres’s demographic analysis looks at the issue of a changing United States from the perspective of the growing minority population (and his party’s weaknesses there) and the majority white population (and his party’s strengths and limitations there). His argument is straightforward: To win the White House, Republicans must systematically improve their performance among minorities while maintaining or even improving their support among white voters.
Okay, so how is it possible to do better among both crucial northern whites and minorities at the same time? Answer: Make the election everyone else versus blacks. On the sly, stroke up the growing fear that Hispanics and Asians have about the black undertow. With ooks in city after city jonesing to turn their own cities inside out this summer, and maybe also next, to add to Ferguson last summer, stirring up resentment of the black undertow will be as easy as picking rich ripe luscious delicious low hanging fruit.
The coming Republican nomination contest will test the appeal of the candidates with both groups of voters. Is there any candidate who can raise the share of the nonwhite vote and attract more white votes in the Midwest?
It won’t be Ayers’s boss, Marco Rubio, who just turned in a yes vote on TPP, and was half of “Schumer-Rubio,” aka Gang Bangers of Eight.