As Inevitable as a Tornado in Oklahoma in May

2 03 2018

Burlington, Vermont;  Canberra, NCT, Australia

FEC raps Bern’s knuckles for what an O’Keefe expose turned over.

Reality check.

Your temptation is to snicker and make fun of Bern.

The problem is that since the United States of America is for all intents and purposes an empire, and itself a democratic republic, and with many client, vassal, protectorate and semi-protectorate states in its aegis that also happen to be democratic republics, including Australia, it’s inevitable that we will interfere in their elections and they in ours.

What is a bit surprising is that there is anyone left in the Australian Labour Party that Feels the Bern.  That party is as thrown in to plutocratic gentry urban cosmopolitan neoliberalism as are the American Democrats.

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Fool Me Twice

28 02 2018

Manhattan

There’s something a little bit disconcerting going on within the Trump Tent.

What got me thinking about this and thinking this way is when we found out a few days ago that the OCGE is hiring his own digital-data-online manager from 2016, Brad Pascale, as his overall national campaign manager for 2020, (even though I don’t think he’ll have to worry about that).  On top of that, there’s this from a few days ago about the Trump 2016 campaign’s data game, and of course Pascale is mentioned.

What is disconcerting to me is that Trump is making the same mistake Obama did.

Remember, after Obama eked out re-election in 2012, for months and months after election day, all we heard about was the invincible juggernaut that was the Obama-DNC data game, and how it and it alone pushed Obama over the line.  Then in the middle of the next year, the Census Bureau released its voter turnout analysis, and found that the niche constituencies that the Obama 2012 data game heavily appealed to had lower turnout rates than they did in 2008, and that combined with other post-election surveys which showed that those same constituencies voted Obama at slightly less percentages (even if for him at landslide proportions) in 2012 compared to 2008, should have ended all the MUH DATA talk forever.  Too, for the fact that the constituency that saved Obama’s bacon in 2012, elderly black women (EBW), aren’t really on the data game radar, and also for the fact that the way the Obama-Romney politics worked out, swing state rust belt workding class whites (SS RB WCWs) just weren’t feeling Willard.

Yet and still, almost everyone that drank the MUH DATA kool-aid before mid-2013 kept on believing it.

Fast forward to the present, Trump is making the same mistake, assigning way too much credit to MUH DATA for his own win.  Hence, giving Pascale the store for 2020.

Seriously, are we to think that Trump was able to flip the 2012 script in 2016, lowering the turnout of EBW and boosting the turnout of SS RB WCWs, because of Pascale’s clever use of Facebook?  How many EBWs and SS RB WCWs are even on Facebook?  The answer is hardly any — Old fashioned politics caused their voting or non-voting habits both in 2012 and 2016.





The Memo

2 02 2018

Washington, D.C.

Nothing more than what we the tuned in people already knew.

The highly politicized FBI bought into the same conventional wisdom and Silver Mines handouts that just about everyone else did.  You know, ZOMG 97.3% ODDS LOL~!!!!!1.  All the FBI was doing was banking on inevitability and getting ready to please the new boss same as the old boss.

Whether anyone will ever face the music for this, I have my doubts.  After all, I don’t exactly see the inevitable President wearing leg irons and slumming in Alderson in Martha Stewart’s old cell.





Subtraction Is Addition

26 11 2017

London

NBC:

Archbishop of Canterbury baffled by Christians who back Trump

England’s top religious authority, the Archbishop of Canterbury, said Sunday that he doesn’t understand why so many Christians in the U.S. support President Donald Trump.

The Most Reverend Justin Welby told ITV’s “Peston on Sunday” program that he “really genuinely” can’t comprehend why fundamentalists have provided such a strong base for Trump.

They were told for decades to drop the social issues, and in 2016, they did.

Simple math:

Religious right minus social issues equals populist-nationalist.





My Unique Take on Donna Brazile Going Rogue

14 11 2017

Washington, D.C.

Aside from the fact that I think her whole book is a gigantic post hoc CYA, and while I do think the DNC at the official level both attempted to rig the 2016 Democrat Presidential primaries and essentially merged with the Clinton political machine, I have never bought into the notion that any of that was the proximate cause of HRC winning the nomination ergo Bernie Sanders not, and even more than that, that outcome would have happened even if such rigging would have never happened.

That’s because there’s a very simple and obvious explanation for HRC’s margin of victory over Bernie:

Black voters.

They were the singular difference in:  (1) HRC winning more states than Bernie, (2) HRC winning more vote-determined delegates than Bernie, and (3) HRC winning more total primary and caucus raw votes than Bernie.  Which means they were the singular difference in HRC winning the nomination overall, because the superdelegates lined up behind her once all three of these things became known.  Back out all black voters, and Bernie wins more states, more regular delegates, more raw votes than HRC, at which time the supers would have fallen in line behind him and given him the nomination.

Another thing that has to be addressed, one of those lies that made it halfway to the other side of the world before the truth was able to get out of bed and put its boots on, is that Donna Brazile never claimed she had the unilateral plenary power to swap out the Clinton-Kaine ticket for a Biden-Booker ticket after HRC’s fainting spell on the 15th anniversary of 9/11.  Personally, I don’t think she was ever really considering doing that in terms of something she wished she could have done, because I don’t remember the political gossip circuit lighting up at the time that she had those desires.  In fact, in searching my own posts, the only entry I have for September/October 2016 with Brazile either in the title or text is a short allusion to this minor scandal that broke about her during that time, but nothing about swapping out Presidential nominees.  I think that is just something she’s saying now for what I just said — post hoc CYA.





Whatchya Doin, Hillary?

14 11 2017

Brooklyn

Just as we in the Alt-Right see spray painted swastika and immediately think, “Whatchya doin’ Rabbi?,” and we see KKK graffiti and immediately think, “Whatchya doin’ Leroy?,” turns out this whole MUH RUSSIA thing was purely a matter of “Whatchya Doin’ Hillary?”

The only way she comes out of this smelling less bad than she otherwise would is if we learn in the long run that the British intel agents exclusively made up the golden showers documents, which of course were the proximate causation of any and every element of the phony “Russian collusion” hysteria/investigation, and at the same time there is affirmative evidence that she thought they were real.  My instincts tell me that she knew that she was paying for hoax documents even if she didn’t help concoct what was in them.  My cynicism informs me that more than that, she was part of the fabrication of the contents.

The much ballyhooed indictment of Paul Manafort, (a matter of Robert Mueller digging for gold and accidentally finding copper), is a paintball that is way more likely to splat in the face of the 2016 Democrat Presidential nominee than the fact of the 2016 Republican Presidential nominee.  Speaking of, when the news broke that Manafort was being indicted, I bet a certain Corey L. did a boogy woogy victory dance.





Already Two Years

16 06 2017

Manhattan

Trump rode down the escalator two years ago today.

Here was my reaction about that on that day.