Ball’s In My Court

15 03 2016

Jefferson City

Third Super Tuesday.  Even though there are lots of important states going today, for obvious and personal reasons, all my attention will be on one of them.  And, as it is, the statgeeks and the media are starting to get on the “Missouri and Illinois are important” bandwagon.  As far as that goes, I once thought that Trump would easily win all eight Missouri Congressional districts and therefore get all 52 Missouri delegates even if he didn’t get an absolute majority statewide.  (The same system exists in the Illinois Republican primary.)  However, with the recent Cruz surge, and for the fact that an absolute statewide majority for Trump is out of the question, I think Cruz has a chance in CD-7, southwest Missouri, Springfield-Joplin.

By the time this day is over, Trump could land the TKO.

Open thread.

And also, Beware the Ides…

 


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80 responses

15 03 2016
DK

voted trump in St. Louis Co. so far it was just older people, no millennials.

15 03 2016
countenance

All the talk about Ohio misses the point. John Kasich is the Governor of Ohio, and it’s kinda sad that his RCP average for March is 39 and his average RCP lead over Trump is 4. That’s really limp dick. But, all that matters to the people that want to stop Trump is that Kasich win by any margin and therefore deny Trump any Ohio delegates.

15 03 2016
Hard Right

I don’t see how he can win after advocating amnesty in the first 100 days. Even people who hate Trump aren’t going to want reward illegals.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

15 03 2016
Hard Right

Not much to report from the Boonies. Only five people ahead of me. Four of them were women which was kinda unusual. The MILF asked for a Republican ballot. Guy and his wife were prole. He probably voted for Trump. Three or four older guys came in after me. They looked like Democrats. Nobody under 30.

15 03 2016
countenance

Like I’ve been saying, never bank on under 30.

16 03 2016
john jones

How was the MILF?

16 03 2016
Hard Right

She apparently voted for Cruz. Roissy’s Alpha Male Theory isn’t working very well in the Republican Primary. Women are trending Cruz for some reason.

15 03 2016
Hard Right

And also, Beware the Ides…

Message to Rubio?

15 03 2016
countenance

Missouri Republican primary, total turnout

2008: 588,720
2012: 252,185

It was way down in 2012 because Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot, and RNC bickering with Missouri’s early primary date meant that the actual voting would not be used to apportion delegates. A later caucus did that. So, there wasn’t a big turnout driver, and Santorum won with 55%. Tonight’s total turnout numbers will be better measured against 2008’s.

Missouri Democrat Primary 2008, 827,107 total turnout. 2012 was an incumbent year for the Democrats, so turnout numbers are irrelevant. Compare tonight to 2008.

Turnout numbers yesterday: Republicans, 939,434. Democrats, 626,102.

15 03 2016
countenance

Missouri results will be here:

http://enr.sos.mo.gov/EnrNet/

15 03 2016
countenance

Trump signed a pledge, the others forgot to. And also, I thought Trump was too right wing, so why do “conservatives” want a third candidate?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/top-conservatives-gather-to-plot-third-party-run-against-trump-220786

15 03 2016
JRM

Foam Boy Swirls down Drain!

15 03 2016
countenance

He’s only winning Miami Dade County, just about everything else is Trump, yet even counting Miami Dade going for Pool Boy big, for obvious reasons, Trump still beat him handily in the whole state. Once final numbers are in, I’ll calculate what Trump did in FL sans Miami Dade.

15 03 2016
JRM

CNN calls Ohio for Kucksick. Now (if that holds) we need a good road map for what Trump has to do to get to 1237. Or is a contested convention the most likely outcome?

15 03 2016
countenance

I’ll game that in a bit, but now the Mailman’s Son will be all alone in the establishment lane. He’ll definitely stay in because he was able to win his own state where he’s Governor with less than a majority.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

It’s troubling that Trump isn’t doing better in the Rust Belt. I can only conclude that some proles still think the Commiecrats actually care about the little guy.

16 03 2016
countenance

Trump won Michigan. And, I’m not jumping off a ledge because the Governor of Ohio won the Ohio Republican Primary with less than a majority.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

Just noting that Trump isn’t doing as well as he should be. He should’ve had a majority in both States. Of course, he should’ve won in Mid MO as well.

15 03 2016
countenance

Very early numbers, Hard Right, Cruz is narrowly leading in Boone.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

I don’t get it. I can understand Boone and Cole, but Audrain, Callaway, Cooper, and Howard? Looks like he also won Marion. Doesn’t make sense to me.

FWIW, Auxvasse is in Callaway.

15 03 2016
countenance

Wouldn’t you know it, ours is the last outstanding Republican race of the night. All eyes on the Show-Me, look busy everyone.

15 03 2016
countenance

Cruz is winning big in southwest counties, so it looks like he’ll win CD-7 and therefore deny Trump all 52 delegates.

15 03 2016
Marc Bahn

Damn Jayhawkers oozing in from the west. Thankfully KC is holding out. I say burn Lawrence.

15 03 2016
countenance

Or the Arkansasers oozing from the south, or the Oklahomans from the southwest.

The big outstandings are St. Louis City, St. Louis County, St. Charles County, all showing well for Trump so far.

15 03 2016
countenance

Other turnout numbers for comparison, I’ll add the 2016 numbers when I get them.

Florida

Democrats 2008: 1,749,920
Democrats 2016: 1,699,689

Republicans 2008: 1,949,498
Republicans 2012: 1,663,698
Republicans 2016: 2,323,220

Illinois

Democrats 2008: 2,038,614
Democrats 2016: 1,944,227

Republicans 2008: 899,422
Republicans 2012: 933,454
Republicans 2016: 1,376,723

North Carolina

Democrats 2008: 1,580,726
Democrats 2016: 1,127,216

Republicans 2008: 517,583
Republicans 2012: 973,206
Republicans 2016: 1,138,331

Note: In 2008 and 2012, NC’s R-primary was held after the eventual nominee had it all locked up, leading to low turnout. That was not the case in 2016, so the comparison is not apples-to-apples.

Ohio

Democrats 2008: 2,233,156
Democrats 2016: 1,154,024

Republicans 2008: 1,095,917
Republicans 2012: 1,213,879
Republicans 2016: 1,901,572

15 03 2016
AnAnon

Florida looks like 1.7M D voters and 2.2M R voters.

15 03 2016
AnAnon

NC looks like 1.1M to 1.1M for both, Ohio looks like 2M R voters to 1.16M D voters.

15 03 2016
AnAnon

To what extent did Kasich et al pull support from democrat spoilers, and to what extent were voters just fleeing the democrat party?

15 03 2016
countenance

All the southwest counties are in, and we’re still waiting on really big numbers from St. Louis City, St. Louis County, St. Charles County and Jackson County sans Kansas City, (MO SOS reports Jackson County that is part of Kansas City separate from Jackson County that isn’t in Kansas City, ironically, Kansas City’s municipality is in four counties, though its core is in Jackson), all four of those Trump is winning so far. So I think Trump will eke it out.

15 03 2016
countenance

Cruz won Cape Girardeau County, go figure. You know who is from Cape Girardeau. But it’s going to be his only win in southeast and in CD-8, and he’s carrying CD-8 easily.

15 03 2016
countenance

I notice in Ohio, Trump is winning the south and southeast counties that border KY and WV.

15 03 2016
AnAnon

definitely an ethnic split between the two areas.

15 03 2016
Marc Bahn

Aye, the Confederate parts.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

Didn’t work in Missouri. Half of Little Dixie went for Cruz.

15 03 2016
countenance

Bern has a slight lead over Hillary here, and Bern is going to sweat the STL City/County numbers when they finally pour in.

15 03 2016
Marc Bahn

I would love to see HRC & Bernie on the same ticket. What could be more beatable, in a sane world?

15 03 2016
hell_is_like_newark

Two counties left to report. About 2,300 votes between Trump and Cruz. Very close. I know nothing of the remaining counties to report. Cruz or Trump leaning?

15 03 2016
hell_is_like_newark

Edit: 3 counties left

15 03 2016
countenance

Suburban Jackson, St. Louis City, St. Louis County, St. Charles County. The first has been swinging back and forth all night, Trump has a narrow lead in the other three.

15 03 2016
countenance

St. Louis City is all in, Trump wins it. Amazingly, HRC carried St. Louis City, but not by much, which means it didn’t help her overtake Bern statewide. With all the blacks in the city, that HRC didn’t blow Bern away in the city is a big surprise to me.

15 03 2016
countenance

Media call Dem for Bern.

15 03 2016
countenance

I think Cruz will carry CD-5, along with CD-7.

15 03 2016
Marc Bahn

Congrats STL, pls pray for KC.

15 03 2016
countenance

That St. Louis was Trump country and Kansas City tended to Cruz does not surprise me.

15 03 2016
countenance

A big chunk of suburban Jackson just reported, it’s a Cruz area, but it didn’t get Cruz any closer percentage wise. If Trump wins this by more than a quarter percent of the vote, there won’t be a legally mandated recount.

16 03 2016
john jones

The surprise was that Cruz didnt do better in suburbs. Its not the fault of upper middle class Catholics and Evangelicals, believe me. Its the plebes who are independent, never-voted, or Democrats crossing over in St Louis and St Charles Counties to vote for Glorious Leader. The only area Cruz won big was the Missouri Bible Belt.

15 03 2016
Marc Bahn

Go.Ahead.Rub.It.In. Doesn’t matter. Glorious leader wins MO anyway.

16 03 2016
countenance

What. A. Thriller.

In both parties.

The late ballots in St. Louis City and County and Kansas City put HRC over the top. By the same 0.2% margin that Trump won with. Both sides will go to recounts, so no delegate apportionment until it’s done.

16 03 2016
countenance

I’ve added yesterday’s Missouri turnout numbers to my comment above.

16 03 2016
countenance

Preliminary Congressional district results, pending recount.

Democrats: HRC won 1 and 5, Bern won the rest. No surprise there.

Republicans: Cruz won 4, 5 and 7, Trump won the rest. Cruz pulling out 4 was a total shock, those mid-state counties going for him is also a surprise.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

Cruz pulling out 4 was a total shock, those mid-state counties going for him is also a surprise.

Tell me about it. I know that there are a lot of fundies out here, but he’s a spic. Better organization might explain KC, but nobody had any organization out here.

16 03 2016
countenance

One of Cruz’s big national mucks lives in suburban Jackson.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

Roe is from Brookfield. Went to school in Maryville. Trump won Linn and Nodaway.

16 03 2016
countenance

Florida

Overall results:

Trump 45.8
Rubio 27.0 (BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA)
Cruz 17.0
Kasich 6.8
Others 3.4

Miami-Dade results:

Rubio 62.7
Trump 22.5
Cruz 9.0
Kasich 2.9
Others 2.9

Florida backing out Miami-Dade

Trump 47.7
Rubio 24.1 (BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA)
Cruz 17.7
Kasich 7.1
Others 3.4

So, Rubio couldn’t even get a quarter in his own state outside of Cuba County.

16 03 2016
countenance

Trump beat Cruz by 1700 votes, HRC beat Bern by 1500 votes. Missouri has almost 3100 precincts, so both were contests that were won by their winners by not much more than an average of a half a vote per precinct.

16 03 2016
john jones

Interesting to hear Hancock, Kelly and Calhoun, KMOX coverage, banging their heads on the table all night long wondering Why, WHY, WHY! are Jackson County and St. Louis City always so late with their results. They pointed out that they had much closer drives to the election board than any of the rural election boards. (At one point they said they had 100% of the returns in the City … then all the sudden it went down to 64%). Of course we know why … either black incompetence or black corruption.

16 03 2016
countenance

Or sometimes, ballot box stuffing.

16 03 2016
Marc Bahn

Gangsterism… in KC & STL, naaah.

16 03 2016
countenance

1.6 m for all parties. For comparison, a Presidential cycle in MO is 2.7-2.9 m.

http://www.kmov.com/story/31480660/missouri-primary-turnout-sets-new-high-mark

16 03 2016
Alex the Goon

[Beck believes] if it’s between Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton and Trump, a third-party candidate could emerge. “If you put this together and it was an incredible third party, not establishment, an incredible third party, and said, `We’re not going to be the GOP anymore,’ I think you get a lot of independents voting for it,” Beck said.”Because the GOP, especially if the GOP throws their weight behind Donald Trump, if he wins the nomination and they throw their weight behind Donald Trump, it’s over.”
Nancy Reagan’s not even cold yet, and Glenn Beck is already saying yes to drugs.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

Her astrologer channeled her for Beck.

16 03 2016
countenance

I’ve updated the other four states’ turnout numbers in the comment above.

16 03 2016
16 03 2016
Hard Right

New Poll: Left-Wing Protesters Drive People into Arms of Donald Trump

http://reason.com/blog/2016/03/14/new-poll-left-wing-protesters-drive-peop

Trump canceling Chicago event made Republicans more likely to vote for him.

16 03 2016
countenance

Which means the public tends to think of Trump and Trump’s people as vics rather than perps.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

If these reports are accurate, the Alt Right could have a real effect simply by going in #BLM and stirring up the groids. Trump isn’t doing as well with women. Hordes of rampaging niggers might be just the thing to convince “security moms” to vote for him.

16 03 2016
Hard Right

Maybe they already are….

16 03 2016
countenance

And that would be different from any other day …. how?

16 03 2016
16 03 2016
JRM

Dear black people when Obama won young white men were fully hell bent on accepting it as lawful democracy and being polite about it everywhere they went. Just so you remember.

But thanks for giving us a heads up on the plans of young niggas if Trump wins. Sounds a lot like the usual hell-raising you’ve been doing all along.

17 03 2016
Hard Right

17 03 2016
Hard Right

16 03 2016
16 03 2016
Hard Right

Kool-Aid lost in the mail….

16 03 2016
16 03 2016
Hard Right

16 03 2016
JRM

For those who are familiar with the “blacklisting” of Hollywood talent during the HUAC hearings: we’ve heard for years how ignoble and base that chapter in American history was.

Another moment of supposed “shame” was Nixon’s “enemies list”. I could not count the number of sanctimonious words I’ve heard and read about the evil “right” and their not-very-open-minded selves.

But now we see Amanda there acting as if she had never heard that “lists” like she proposes are, according to Official MSM Legend, a really hateful sort of thing to do.

16 03 2016
countenance

That would be like filling out a supper menu on the Titanic after it hit the ‘berg.

16 03 2016
lowlywhisper

Someone might put Amanda on their list. I wonder if she considered that?




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