First off, if you’ve been paying attention to Ace of Spades Decision Desk for the past month, then you already know this, and you know that knowing the two-party split of early votes already submitted (*) is crucial, and that even more crucial than that is comparing the two-party split of early votes already submitted to the same point in time four years ago. For instance, in Iowa, while D > R in early votes slightly, four years ago at this time, the D over R lead was significantly bigger. And what happened in Iowa four years ago? Even though Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley won re-election and the House delegation from Iowa had no party flips, Terry Branstad did topple Chet Culver for Governor. So the Republican gains in early voting is taken as good news for Joni Ernst.
However, I think this story out of Colorado gets one thing wrong. I don’t think the high Republican turnout implying high Republican anger and motivation is intended to hurt Mark Udall, even though he will feel the disparate impact. I think the real target of their ire is Democrat Governor John Hickenlooper. The gun legislation of last year, which resulted in two Democrat State Senators being recalled and a third quitting before she could, is a huge factor. But also, his Republican opponent is making a big issue of Hick issuing a reprieve delaying one Nathan Dunlap having a date with the electric chair, for his murdering people in 1993 at a Chuck E. Cheese in suburban Denver. And since I said “Chuck E. Cheese,” and since you read James Edwards every day, the world’s foremost repository for CEC shenanigans, always done at the hands of YKW, you can figure out something about Mr. Dunlap just by that.
(*) – It’s not that they’re counting the early votes already. The way they can tell whether more Republicans or Democrats have cast early votes is cross checking those that have with party registration. Because Colorado and Iowa have party registration. Missouri does not. Another factor is that Republicans generally do better than the party registration of a given place’s voters would suggest.