Potsdam
You’re wondering what the hell happened yesterday.
Early in the afternoon yesterday, we got credible media reports that turnout in both states, Brandenburg and Saxony, was rather much higher than this same election cycle five years ago, and that most of the increase was middle aged men. Which happens to be the AfD’s strongest demographic, using 2017 Federals data and research. And this was happening in the former East, the AfD’s strongest region. So when you mash up the strongest demographic and strongest region, it was easy to figure out who was benefiting. Note that I don’t say “white” or “real German,” because non-white/German voting participation rates in this country are so low that they’re below statistical noise level, even in heavily enriched areas, and realize that Brandenburg and Saxony have far less enrichment than, say, North Rhine-Westphalia.
So when we heard that, yours truly and the people I was around were smiling.
Then as the afternoon went on, we got eyeball reports that the turnout increase was just about equal parts old women and middle aged men. The former (women 70+) being Union’s (i.e. CDU and CSU) strongest demographic, again, using 2017 Federals data.
At that point, our smiles suddenly straightened up.
About a half hour after the polls closed in both states, ARD, (“Arbeitsgemeinschaft Rundfunkanstalten Deutschland,” the German consortium of public broadcasters, and the source of exit polling and projections on election days), dropped its projections, which further turned our smiles downward.
In the end, after the actual count, we did a little better and the first place parties, the SPD in Bran., and the CDU in Sax., did a little worse, than the ARD projections. But not enough to change the order. A close second in both states.
At the same time, we did better in total percentage terms than the averages of the final pre-election day polling suggested in both states. In the end, AfD doubled its Bran. percentage over five years ago, triple in Sax.
So, what the hell happened?
How could we finish in second when we did outperformed the polls and turned out our base very well, and otherwise did everything to finish in first place?
I just gave you half the answer: Old women. The SPD in Bran., and the CDU in Sax., big time bussed them in, figuratively speaking.
Why don’t advertisers target to upper middle aged and older people, even though they have money? Why is it that, once you turn 55 in the United States, Madison Avenue barely acknowledges that you even exist? It’s because once you get to a certain age, your brand loyalty in terms of fungible products and services is carved in stone. Norma Mae, 75 years old, has been using Tide since she was 25, so she’s not going to stop now. Same goes for political and partisan loyalties.
The morning and afternoon after, I’ve now come up with a theory to the other half of the answer, which the people around me either like or aren’t dismissing out of hand. I came up with this theory looking at the twisted ribbon graphics for both states, which is, looking at the voter shifts between parties or non-voting in 2014 and the same yesterday.
I would not be at all surprised if there was a tacit agreement between the CDU and SPD that their voters in the two states voted for the stronger party in either state, just to make sure the incumbent first-place party from five years ago stayed in first place, and more importantly, to deny the AfD the psychological (even if not substantive, see below) win of finishing in first place. Meaning that CDU regulars in Brandenburg voted SPD, and SPD regulars in Saxony voted CDU. Now, this is the kind of thing that only a few percent would do, but politics are games of margins.
Combine the bussed in old women with what I believe was this tacit logrolling, and that’s what made the difference.
However, it really doesn’t matter in the short term, in terms of the assembly of governing coalitions in both states based on yesterday’s results. Even if the AfD would have literally finished in first in either or both, it would have been a minority first-place finish, and the other parties have pledged to treat us like a case of the Bubonic plague. Mid-summer, there was a very long shot outside chance that we could win an absolute majority in Saxony, our strongest state overall. But German politics are such that it’s really rare that a party wins an absolute majority. Even the Christian Social Union, the permanent CDU partner that only exists in Bavaria, rarely gets an absolute majority there.
But here’s why our frowns turned back into smiles:
I already gave you a hint in the title of this post. German political culture fetishizes the concept of Zukunft, i.e. future. Inexplicably so, IMHO, but hey, it is what it is.
From what I have already written here, you can figure out who has won the Zukunft just based on yesterday. And why both the CDU and SPD issued public statements of “no gloating” and “no cheering” and “no spiking the football” yesterday evening.
The two established political parties, to save their first place finishes in these two states, had to rustle up the kind of people, who, by the time these same elections are held again, will be pushing up daisies. That’s some way to invest in your Zukunft, huh? It’s reminiscent of the way that Obama goosed up elderly black women to eke out re-election in 2012.
You may be wondering why there’s a lot of anti-boomer generationism (the BQ, Boomer Question) in the American Alt-Right. It’s not because anyone really thinks Boomers caused all the world’s problems, and to the extent that anyone says that or thinks that, it’s because our sector has a bad propensity to blow simple contentions way out of proportion and piss people off along the way. It’s because Boomers are keeping obsolete ideologies and parties of both the left and right alive way past their useful shelf lives, for the same reason Madison Avenue won’t try to convince 75-year old Norma Mae to switch from Tide to All. Since the German baby boom started a few years after the American one, the start of the post-war economic miracle in 1949 instead of V-E/J Day in 1945, it will take a little longer for German boomers to cycle out of political involvement either through death or mental incapacitance.
One thing I saw out of the corner of my eye is how horribly the Greens did, compared to both pre-election polling, and compared to their very good result in the MEPs back in May, and that the German media screamed Grüne Grüne Grüne Grüne Grüne all summer long. That points to my contention about the other end of the age spectrum, that being young people. If you’re banking on young voters, you’re already writing your own concession speech. Young voters (under 30) may be energized to turn out in big numbers every once in awhile, but that’s it. They can sprint, but not marathon. The Greens’ “sprint” in the current time and geography turned out to be this past spring’s MEPs.
The AfD has won the Zukunft because it’s neither old nor young.
***
For the first time in more than two and a half years, I DJed last night, for a word of mouth only party, WOM in order to give Antifa the slip. That I had planned ever since I got here to Potsdam. I had also game planned for two different circumstances, one for Earth-shaking news, and the other for good but less than totally enthusiastic news. Two different playlists and progressions. As the afternoon and early evening and mid-evening wore on, I figured out which option I’d have to use.
The last time I spun, again, more than two and a half years ago, it was for a Trump inauguration night party back in St. Louis. That was before “that day,” and this was something I would not have been able to do as late as four months ago. My DJ skills were never what you would call top shelf even back in my physical peak, but at least this gave me a means to compare myself to the last time I did this, January 20, 2017, and therefore assess my recovery in a consummate sense. DJing takes some measure of physical and cognitive coordination, keeping a fair number of tennis balls in the air simultaneously. And I certainly know I didn’t embarrass myself last night, so I must be back to some measure of satisfactory.
Had yesterday’s results been more favorable, this party would have been packed and gone all night, and of course I would have picked the hotter playlist. But it was well-attended even if not jam-packed, and petered out around 2:30. Realizing that most of the people who came had gotten up early the previous morning for election day business, so they themselves were tired.
I did find out that, if my eyes were any indication, a lot of middle aged Germans can sing German-translated lyrics to “Free Bird” in perfect sync.
***
Tomorrow, I’m on a train heading back to Cologne. I’ll see the g/f, but just her. I’m not ready for any more of the sister drama just yet. Then back on a train Thursday, back down to Wiesbaden, so I can re-start rehab. This the second phase will, along with the usual, involve something else I haven’t done in more than two years: Driving a car.
Since it’s now early September and Labor Day in the United States, I realize that it has now been just about a year since I made this “permanent” move. And it’s been a really good twelve months personally, and a very decent one professionally.
***
UPDATE 9/3
Here in the second day of the aftermath, the German and international media have spun Sunday’s results surprisingly pro-AfD. I was expecting them to run the “ZOMG YOU DIDN’T FINISH IN FIRST PLACE LIKE EVERYONE EXPECTED LOL~!!!!1” line into the ground.
Which means the media are working an angle. I suspect the angle they’re working is that this portends badly for Union and AKK in two years, and tangentially, for Merkel’s legacy.